By admin 
KANSAS CITY, Mo. – It seems obvious the Padres should be sellers. Also, it is abundantly clear they should be buyers. And it makes sense for them to pretty much stand pat.
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That is about where the team is with less than three weeks remaining before the Aug. 3 trade deadline.
The Padres say they have the resources to make additions.
“If it makes sense,” is how one source phrased the potential for adding payroll.
Team chairman John Seidler said it will be “business as usual” even though the deadline comes before the expected approval of the new ownership group and that “decisions will be made in the best interests of the Padres.”
What is in the best interest of the team in 2027 and beyond is at the heart of the matter.
Are they good enough to make the postseason as currently constructed? That answer is apparent – a nearly unanimous “no” among those who will be making the decisions.
The other questions, separate but inextricable, regard the wisdom of trying to make this year’s team better.
An assessment of the market is necessary conjointly with an assessment of the team.
“You’ve got to look at what’s out there in the market,” Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller said. “You’ve got to be realistic with things that you can do as a group and a team, and you’ve also got to have a feel for where your team is at.”
The Padres are in the process of determining what players are available at what cost and what other teams might give them for their players.
Every team looking to add is considering what risks are involved in acquiring players under team control beyond this season due to uncertainty over whether there will be a 2027 season and how a new labor deal will affect free agency.
Making the math a bit more complex is the market. It’s elbow-to-elbow with window shoppers, at least for now.
There are 23 teams that could be considered in contention for 12 postseason spots. There are six teams within 3½ games of the final wild-card spot in the American League. There are five teams within four games of the final National League spot, including the Padres.
That means there is much to be decided in a short time.
The Padres, who are 48-48 and 3½ games out of playoff position, begin the “second half” of the season, which is really the final 40.7% of their season, on Friday with the opener of a three-game series against the Royals.
Then they head south for four games against the Braves, who hold the No. 3 seed in the NL playoff field as of now, and then south again for three against the Marlins, who hold the sixth seed.
Call it a 10-game crossroads trip.
“We’ll see a couple teams that are in the playoff chase with us, in front of us, and I think we’ll take it all in,” said Preller, who does not always travel with the team but will be on this trip. “You don’t want to overreact from game to game, but, obviously, you get more information over those 10 days. And that’ll all be part of our process in making our decisions here as we get to the deadline.”
Preller and his lieutenants are aware of the Padres’ myriad flaws. They were aware of them before most people.
The question is whether they have enough and whether they can add enough to win enough.
“Those will be conversations over the course of the next few weeks,” Preller said. “You also have to see how the team plays, how we come out of the break and also what’s out there. We’re going to go into the process open-minded to see what’s there and see what can help our club. We’re going to go in open-minded about whether it’s acquiring players or you know kind of looking at if we have to go another direction. I think all those things are on the table.”
Why they should sell
It took 83 wins to make the NL postseason field last season. The win totals of the No. 6 seed in the other three seasons since MLB went to six playoff teams in each league were 84, 87 and 89.
Given the number of contenders this season, a fight to the finish seems likely. And that could push the win total to the higher end of that spectrum.
The target tossed around most frequently is 87 wins.
The Padres would have to go 39-27 the rest of the way to get there.
At their best this season, they were 12 games above .500. But they have not been at their best in quite some time.
They rank last in MLB in runs per game (3.95) and 27th in starting pitcher ERA (4.78).
That ERA is 5.35 over their past 33 games, a span in which they have gotten just six quality starts (all by Michael King) and seven other starts in which a pitcher went even five innings and allowed two or fewer runs.
As one Padres player said last week: “Do they want to add when we have one starting pitcher?”
The pressure has been on the staff from the start, as the offense has not helped enough.
The sample size for the struggling hitters who are supposed to help carry the Padres is no longer small. Manny Machado has worked his way back to being himself over the past month but still begins the second half with a .203 batting average.
Jackson Merrill is batting .219 with a .628 OPS.
Fernando Tatis Jr. was sensational in many ways for most of the final seven weeks of the first half, but his having five home runs makes him largely responsible for the Padres’ power outage.
Xander Bogaerts was a highly productive player for the first 39 games (.778 OPS) and has been mostly a void in the lineup since (.543 OPS).
Multiple sources said the Padres have not ruled out anything, including the possibility of trading closer Mason Miller, high-leverage lefty Adrian Morejón or King.
King would be a potential rental, as he can opt out of his contract after this season. So would pending free agents Morejón, Walker Buehler, Ty France and probably Gavin Sheets.
Sheets is not scheduled to become a free agent until after the 2027 season. But one thing that has essentially been decided between the union and MLB is that the service time required to become a free agent will go from six years to five under the new collective bargaining agreement.
That also is a potentially significant factor in assessing the value of Miller, who is by far the biggest chip Preller has to play.
Besides his arguably being the best closer in the game, Miller’s attractiveness is enhanced by his being under team control through 2029.
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But that is virtually certain to become ‘28 once the labor dust settles. Throw in the potential for a lost 2027 season, and Miller might have one season to go before being in line for a huge free agent contract.
One question being kicked around at Petco Park is whether moving Miller as part of a package that includes Bogaerts is a proposition too beneficial to pass up. It is practically a foregone conclusion that the Padres will eventually find a way to get out from under a portion of the $25 million they owe their underperforming 33-year-old shortstop each of the next seven seasons.
If someone were willing to take on some of Bogaerts’ salary – and Bogaerts waived his no-trade clause – it might tip the scales.
FanGraphs.com placed the Padres’ chances of making the postseason at 11.4%, which puts them behind nine other NL teams.
Despite all those teams in contention as the second half begins, the reality explained by history is not encouraging.
Since the postseason field was expanded in 2022, just three teams have been more than 2½ games out of playoff position with 66 games remaining and made up enough ground to get into the postseason.
Why they should buy
The Padres’ schedule in the second half is the fifth-easiest in the major leagues, according to FanGraphs.
The Royals are 21 games below .500, and the Padres will return home to play the Rockies (20 games under) and Giants (14 games under) in the six games leading up to the deadline.
Almost two-thirds of the Padres’ remaining 66 games are against teams currently no better than two games above .500, and more than half are against teams below .500.
The Padres are 30-16 against teams with losing records.
What if the Marlins, Cardinals, Diamondbacks and Pirates don’t finish strong? Getting to 83 wins would require just a 35-31 finish. Getting to 84 wins would require a 36-30 finish. And 85 wins, well, that math is the most straightforward part of all this.
It is tempting to dismiss such a possibility. Not too many ifs have worked out for the Padres this season.
But it is far too easy to be dismissive from the outside.
There is no pain so sharp as a missed opportunity. Ask anyone on the 2023 team. It is devastating to look back on what might have been when you know what could have been or even should have been. You don’t get do-overs. Teammates leave. Teammates get older.
Machado is nearing the end of his prime. Merrill is entering his prime. Tatis is in his. Time’s a’ wastin’.
What might have happened in ‘23 if Preller had been able to do more than cheaply putty some holes at the deadline? The Padres got virtually nothing out of reliever Scott Barlow, starting pitcher Rich Hill, reliever Sean Reynolds and two guys (Ji-man Choi and Garrett Cooper) who sort of made up a first base/designated hitter platoon. Yet they pulverized a weak September schedule, winning 20 of their final 27 games and finishing two games out of a playoff spot. The team that won that sixth seed in the NL, the Diamondbacks, advanced to the World Series.
Machado has hit a home run every 14 at-bats and has a .958 OPS since June 9. Tatis is getting on base at a .361 clip and is averaging an extra-base hit every 10 at-bats since May 24.
Bogaerts has hit .296 with a .795 OPS in the second half over the past three seasons. Merrill hit .315 with a .945 OPS after the All-Star break in 2024 and .289 with a .948 OPS from Aug. 11 through the end of last season.
The Padres should have a good idea by Aug. 3 whether Joe Musgrove and/or Nick Pivetta can make it back in time to help. (Not how they will do, but when they will pitch again.) The belief is that Jason Adam can be back in August. Maybe Jeremiah Estrada, too.
The preceding paragraph was packed with possibilities.
It is dangerous to build on a foundation of what is merely possible.
But if the Padres think these things are possible, an argument can be made that they owe a playoff push to themselves and to the fans who have shown up 3 million strong for going on four straight seasons.
And no, just making the playoffs is not the goal.
But a team has to make the playoffs to win the World Series.
And no, again, this version of the Padres is not World Series caliber. Most people involved don’t even think it is playoff-caliber.
That’s the point. If they do make improvements at the deadline, it can be a different team.
Why they should stand pat
When a team does not make any moves or engages in minor trades, it is often referred to as “standing pat.”
It might be the betting person’s choice for what will happen in the next few weeks, as the potential appears high for this trade deadline to be underwhelming.
Some teams that are expected to be sellers have improved enough to make it possible that they are not. The uncertainty of the labor situation also looms.
So there is the possibility the Padres are seen on Aug. 4 to have done nothing. Even if they do try to do something.
Preller could make a run at a deal – or deals – and have none come together.
Remember, it was the Padres who first broached a mega deal for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner at the deadline in 2021 only to have the Dodgers swoop in with a haul the Nationals found more appealing.
At that point, there wasn’t much else Preller deemed was going to be enough to make the Padres significantly better. They settled for band-aids: infielder Adam Frazier, outfielder Jake Marisnick and reliever Daniel Hudson.
That could very well be the route that he travels this season, though it is almost unfathomable he would not at least add a starting pitcher.
He could try some combination of buying and selling, moving a major league reliever and prospects as part of a package for a starting pitcher.
When asked about the deadline, Machado keeps saying, “It’s the guys we have” that will determine the Padres’ fate. The fact is, in recent years, Machado has always had an eye on what the front office is doing, and he does now.
But there is truth in Machado’s sentiment, especially in this moment. The players who are Padres now have to play better to compel the front office to add new players.
“We’re not worried about the trade deadline or what could happen or what can’t happen,” Machado said on Sunday. “We’ve got to get off to a hot start.”
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This story was originally published July 16, 2026 at 2:44 PM.