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Bleacher Report is expecting a huge scoring season from Giannis Antetokounmpo in his first year with the Miami Heat, predicting he will finish 5th in the NBA in scoring.
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I have to agree with them, and this might sound crazy, but they might be underselling him a little.
If Giannis is healthy, there is no reason he shouldn’t be around 30 points per game again. Only two players averaged 30 or above last season, and that was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic. So if Giannis can average 30, I expect him to be near the top of the league because Miami will need him to score, and I also think we’ll see a very motivated version of Giannis this season.
Bleacher Report pointed to that when explaining its prediction.
Bleacher Report predicts Giannis will be the No. 5 scorer in the NBA this season
“He’ll be motivated to prove he’s still a first-tier MVP candidate after a messy exit from Milwaukee, and he may also need to reach new scoring heights just for the Miami Heat offense to function” pic.twitter.com/bHySuQNk3P
– Heat Nation (@HeatNationCom) September 13, 2026
“He’ll be motivated to prove he’s still a first-tier MVP candidate after a messy exit from Milwaukee, and he may also need to reach new scoring heights just for the Miami Heat offense to function.”
Giannis Has Something New To Prove
It’s weird to say a player with Giannis’ resume has something to prove. We’re talking about an NBA champion, Finals MVP, two-time MVP, and one of the most dominant players of his generation. Oh, I also forgot to mention he was the Defensive Player of the Year.
For the first time in his career, he’s starting over with a brand new team. He’s in a new city, with new teammates and coaches. People doubt he can elevate the Miami Heat into the playoffs. The Heat are projected to be the 8th seed in the East, and you don’t think that Giannis will be motivated after hearing that?
I do.
There’s been so much conversation about where Giannis stands among the NBA’s elite players and whether he’s still firmly in that first group of MVP candidates. Now he gets a chance to answer all of it with Miami.
Miami Needs Giannis To Be Its Offensive Engine
This is also why 30 points per game doesn’t feel like some crazy prediction to me.
Look at this Heat roster. Miami has talent around Giannis, but there isn’t another player who is going to consistently give you 25 or 30 every night. This offense is going to revolve around him.
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The Heat didn’t make a franchise-changing move for Giannis; they’re going to have him blend into what they were already doing. Erik Spoelstra now gets to build an offense around one of the most physically dominant players in basketball, and that’s one of the things I’m most excited to watch. There are so many different ways Miami can use him. I’m the most excited to see him in transition.
Miami Finally Has Shooters Around Him
Everyone and their mothers were complaining that the Heat don’t have enough shooters around Giannis. That has completely changed with the addition of Klay Thompson.
The Heat have other capable shooters. Andrew Wiggins can space the floor. Tim Hardaway Jr. gives Miami another shooter off the bench. If you’re going to throw multiple bodies at Giannis every time he gets into the paint, Miami should finally have enough shooting to punish you for it.
Giannis is still going to get his points at the rim. That’s not changing; the difference could be how much easier some of those points become because defenses can’t completely sell out to stop him.
Don’t Rule Out A Top-Three Finish
If Giannis can finish top five in scoring, the Heat will be a top six seed.
We’ve already seen him average 30 points per game for many seasons in a row. This isn’t projecting some massive leap from a player who has never carried an offense.
Health is obviously the biggest factor here. If Giannis is on the floor consistently, though, I expect him to be somewhere around 30 points per game and firmly in that top three-to-five range among NBA scorers.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/nba/heat/onsi as A Bold Giannis Antetokounmpo Prediction For the Miami Heat.
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This story was originally published September 14, 2026 at 12:47 PM.