Navy vs UAB Prediction: Do-or-Die Friday Night Showdown

Navy (1-1) was supposed to rip through the early part of the schedule and be deep in the mix for the Group of Six spot in the College Football Playoff. Instead, it lost the American Conference opener at Florida Atlantic, and now it needs to win this, or it’ll be a fight just to go bowling.

UAB (1-2) has been plucky under Alex Mortensen – it fought well against Illinois and at Louisiana – but it needs to make a splash in its conference debut.

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Navy vs UAB: Quick Hits

  • UAB gets a relative breather against Samford next, and then it’s off to Memphis. It realistically has to win to have a shot at a bowl game.
  • Navy has to make the trip to Air Force next – it’ll be three straight road games – before hosting a suddenly nasty Tulsa team.
  • The Midshipmen won 38-24 last year to go 3-0 all-time in the series.

How To Watch Navy vs UAB

Date: Friday, September 25, 2026

Game Time: 7:00 PM ET

TV: ESPN

Location: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, AL

– Week 4 Schedule & Predictions

Why Navy Will Win

The rested Midshipmen had two weeks off after the rough outing against Florida Atlantic. It wasn’t that the running game didn’t work in the 38-30 defeat; it just didn’t get enough carries.

The offense is averaging close to nine yards per carry, and the UAB defense gave up over 200 yards in each of the last two games and allowed close to six yards per carry against Illinois.

Why UAB Will Win

UAB wants to run – and it was more than good enough in the win over ULM with 266 yards – but it has to try opening it up a little more with the quick passing game.

How did Florida Atlantic beat Navy? The great Owl attack connected on just about everything. Combined with what Towson did in the opener, the Midshipmen are allowing teams to hit 79% of their passes so far.

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Navy vs UAB Prediction, Betting Lines

UAB hasn’t shown the ability to crank it up through the air, but it’s good at controlling the clock. It needs to dominate the time of possession, and Navy will do that from the start. Expect close to 50 carries from the Midshipmen.

Navy 30, UAB 23

Latest Consensus Line: Navy -6.5, o/u: 51.5

ATS Confidence (out of 5): 3

Must See Rating (out of 5): 2.5

Consensus line based on BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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This story was originally published September 22, 2026 at 9:57 PM.

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