By admin 
If you’ve been with me for years on the ten best college football picks, you know that 1) there’s absolutely no whining allowed, and 2) I whine.
Let me put it this way. Too many of my picks have been on Scott’s always wonderful Bad Beats segment. (No, I didn’t have anything going with NC State-Vanderbilt last week, but I’m still nauseous over the way the North Carolina-Clemson under collapsed.)
I’m ridiculously overdue for something massive one way or another, like 8-2 or 2-8, so either way … let’s have some fun.
Results So Far: 23-22
– Week 4 Schedule & Predictions
– CFN Expert Picks Week 4
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10. New Mexico at New Mexico State
Line: New Mexico -11
ATS Pick: New Mexico
It’s never a great sign when I try to rationalize one of these – you can’t make a pick happen – and here’s the issue. This is one of those funky rivalry games that always seems to defy logic and reason.
From 2019 to 2024, New Mexico State either won, or it battled hard and lost by 11 or fewer. But last year was the Lobos’ first season under Jason Eck, and they won by 18.
New Mexico State throws a ton, New Mexico runs a ton, and the big difference will be in the time of possession. The Lobos – who are much, much better than the Aggies – will have the ball for well over 40 minutes.
8. and 9. Oklahoma State at West Virginia
Line: Point Total 61.5, West Virginia -1.5
ATS Pick: Over, West Virginia
This worked last week when I picked Michigan to wallop UTEP, and the over, and both happened with ease. So like all good things. I’m going to ruin it by trying to repeat the magic.
The line seems too good to be true, so it is. However, I’ll take a shot that West Virginia is just that good, especially at home. Oklahoma State was awful when it had to travel just a few miles to play Tulsa, and now it’s dealing with Michael Hawkins and a Mountaineer attack that’s humming.
Getting past 61.5 is a heavy lift, but the forecast calls for perfect conditions. These two offenses will trade body blows all game long.
Sorry I’ll pick up the pace.
7. Texas at Tennessee
Line: Texas -4.5
ATS Pick: Tennessee
– Game Preview and Prediction
It’s a total toss-up game, but this year I promised myself I’d pick the one big game of the week no matter what. I’ve been close.
Ohio State didn’t beat Texas, but it covered, and I’ll still take LSU again – it was 24-24 late, people – over Ole Miss if they played another nine times. The offenses will be on display, but I’m in deep love with the Tennessee pass rush bothering Arch. (Like it at 4.5, LOVED it when it was 6.5.)
6. Oklahoma at Georgia
Line: Point Total 44.5
ATS Pick: Under
– Game Preview and Prediction
If this doesn’t work, tip your hat and move on, because that means this Oklahoma offense found some gear that it hasn’t had over the last few weeks.
The Michigan and New Mexico defenses are good, but the Sooners should’ve put up more than 23 combined points against those two. If you’re trying to figure out your attack, going against the Georgia defense isn’t a good idea. The OU defense will help the cause – it allowed just 23 points in the last two games.
5. TCU at UCF
Line: TCU -3.5
ATS Pick: TCU
– Game Preview and Prediction
Prove me wrong, Scott Frost. Blowing away Bethune-Cookman and rolling by Georgia State at home isn’t doing it for me. TCU has been playing well since the Ireland loss to North Carolina. Quarterback Jaden Craig and the offense have settled in. They’ll hold the ball for most of the game.
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4. USF at Bowling Green
Line: USF -17.5
ATS Pick: USF
Bowling Green was 50 feet below awful in blowout losses to Nebraska and Iowa State, and it opened the season by losing to Tarleton State (okay, fine, the Texans are 4-0, but you don’t lose at home to the FCS team).
USF has been rock-solid so far under new head coach Brian Hartline. It’s not turning the ball over, it doesn’t commit penalties, and … okay, I’m a tad scared that it took a lot of work to put away FIU in a ten-point win, and the win over Army was only by four. Whatever – the Bulls will run all over the nation’s worst run defense.
3. Iowa at Michigan
Line: Point Total 38.5
ATS Pick: Under
– Game Preview and Prediction
I can not believe I’m picking two unders this week. I despise unders. Unders are for the sad, the cynical, the ones who think AI will kill us all in six months instead of 12. But if you’re buying that the Iowa offense is about to start cranking it up just because it hung 55 on Northern Iowa, or Michigan figured it out because it let loose on UTEP …
(I really do despise unders – it’s fine by me, Iowa and Michigan, if you choose to score points.)
2. Ole Miss at Florida
Line: Point Total 58.5
ATS Pick: Over
– Game Preview and Prediction
This is one of those games – like the Iowa-Michigan under – that if it doesn’t work, just chalk it up to a bad day at the office, short memory, make the next play.
Florida hasn’t been stopped yet. The Ole Miss defense couldn’t stop Louisville, and it wouldn’t have stopped LSU if Sam Leavitt was sharper.
I’m not asking for the 44-39 Gator win over Auburn last week, or the 41-38 Rebel win over Louisville, but I am. I’m asking for these two offenses to rip it up.
1. Oregon at USC
Line: Point Total 61.5
ATS Pick: Over
– Game Preview and Prediction
Are my No. 1 picks awful? Yes. Yes, they are.
Do I lose these in new and creatively catastrophic ways? Yes. Yes, I do. (Last week, Kansas State -20.5 was up 31-13 early in the fourth and then decided to take a nap in its 31-20 win.)
USC’s defense is better than the one that made the trip to Rutgers, but it’s creaky. Oregon’s defense is better than the one that didn’t seem interested in playing college football in Stillwater against Oklahoma State a few weeks ago, but it has to prove it – and no, 84-0ing Portland State doesn’t count.
Last year, the Ducks took down USC 42-27 for a combined 59 points. In 2023, USC and Oregon combined for 63 points. The two scored 55 in the 2020 Pac-12 Championship, but Caleb Williams hurt his hamstring early in the first quarter.
They combined for 80 points in 2019. 65 in 2016, 76 in 2015, 113 in 2013 (yes, 62-51 Oregon), 73 in 2011, 85 in 2010, and 67 in 2009.
Oregon and USC, just score points.
Consensus line based on BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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This story was originally published September 25, 2026 at 2:40 AM.