By admin 
MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. – I still think the winless, rebuilding Miami Dolphins will win five games this season. I said it before the season, I’m saying it again now.
I see something in this 0-5 team.
I like the run game, which ranks 11th in the league at 126.6 yards per game. I like the offensive line’s run blocking. I like the third-down offense, which ranks 12th in the league, converting 41.3% of its attempts. I like the physicality the team shows in all phases and every situation. I like the rookie draft class and many of the young players overall. I like coach Jeff Hafley and general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan. I like the team’s attitude, and I like its locker room leadership under center Aaron Brewer, linebacker Jordyn Brooks, defensive tackle Zach Sieler, left tackle Patrick Paul and quarterback Malik Willis.
Predicting that the Dolphins will win five of their final 12 games has nothing to do with fandom or homerism. I’ve told you numerous times that I’m not a Dolphins fan.
This prediction has to do with what I’m seeing from this team and what I’ve seen from other teams in 30 years covering pro sports.
How do the Dolphins get to five wins?
They’ll get two wins by teams overlooking them. They’ll have to earn the other three, and that’ll take lots of improvement during this bye week and beyond.
Obviously, the Dolphins must straighten out Willis. He’s struggling as a first-year starter. I’ve expressed my opinion on Willis (two touchdowns, four interceptions, 68.4 passer rating). He’s not the No. 1 problem right now, and I don’t think he’ll be the No. 1 problem at season’s end.
The No. 1 problem now, as it likely will be at season’s end, is edge rusher, someone who can get the opponent’s quarterback on the ground. Miami’s 4.0 sacks are tied for last in the league.
Still, Willis, who, as we know, doesn’t have much help due to injuries to Pro Bowl running back De’Von Achane (season-ending knee injury) and promising rookie wide receiver Caleb Douglas (has missed several week due to an ankle injury), must be better.
Moving past Willis, to get to five wins the Dolphins have to find a pass rush. Four sacks in five games is ridiculous. Edge rusher Chop Robinson (one sack) has to lead the way. The Dolphins also must reduce the untimely penalties, especially among veterans, who are committing too many errors.
Statistically speaking, Miami is 24th in scoring defense (26.4 points allowed per game) and 31st in scoring offense (14.0 ppg). The Dolphins are tied for 14th in penalties (39) and 20th in penalty yards (260). That can’t continue. Miami must tighten up the special teams play, where we’ve seen weekly blunders. The Dolphins must flip their minus-4 turnover margin, which is tied for 24th. The run defense, at a middling No. 16 (110.6 yards allowed per game), must play tougher situational football. Opponents convert 51.7% of third downs, which ranks 31st in the league.
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And the coaching must improve greatly. Hafley, defensive coordinator Sean Duggan, offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and special teams coordinator Chris Tabor must figure out how to get the best out of their players this week and apply that knowledge after the bye.
I’m not crazy enough to guarantee the rebuild will succeed. It’s way too early for that.
All I’m saying is that I could see the Dolphins surging, relatively speaking, in these 12 games after the bye, and winning five of them, perhaps starting with their road game against the New York Jets on Oct. 25.
This team has an identity as a physical, run-first crew that won’t quit.
I like that as a starting point. And I think I know what I’m seeing.
I’ll remind you that I was pretty good in my understanding of the previous regime/team (2022-25). My combined preseason predictions had those teams going 37-31 in the regular season. They went 35-33. For years, including throughout 2023, when Miami had the league’s No. 1 offense, I warned the offense was too highly regarded. I told you that the Dolphins got crushed by good teams (5-22 vs. playoff teams), and wrote a few times that quarterback Tua Tagovailoa shouldn’t get a contract extension. I was pretty accurate about that team.
I think I’ll be accurate about this team.
I’ve often recalled the 2019 Dolphins who started out 0-3, losing by a combined score of 133-16. The overwhelming majority of the NFL public said that team would go 0-16. They looked at the remaining schedule and defied anyone to pick a single game that that Dolphins team could win. It was mission impossible.
Somehow, however, that team, which sagged to 0-7, won five of its last nine games and finished 5-11.
Yes, the 2026 Dolphins have the NFL’s worst point differential at minus-62, eight points worse than the Arizona Cardinals (1-4) and 11 points worse than the Tennessee Titans (-51). But that can be changed in these next dozen games.
Post-bye, I think Hafley and the lessons learned before the bye will make a big difference.
This team has the potential to be much better in the final few months of the season than it was in the first few weeks of the season.
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This story was originally published October 15, 2026 at 2:44 AM.