{"id":1182,"date":"2026-05-10T14:01:05","date_gmt":"2026-05-10T14:01:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sandiegorelocationnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/10\/reaching-bubble-territory-californias-capitol-watchdog-advises-fiscal-prudence-7\/"},"modified":"2026-05-10T14:01:05","modified_gmt":"2026-05-10T14:01:05","slug":"reaching-bubble-territory-californias-capitol-watchdog-advises-fiscal-prudence-7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sandiegorelocationnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/10\/reaching-bubble-territory-californias-capitol-watchdog-advises-fiscal-prudence-7\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Reaching bubble territory\u2019: California\u2019s Capitol watchdog advises fiscal prudence"},"content":{"rendered":"<article><!-- --><!-- --><!-- WPS-5038 -- removed the script from WPS and added the placeholder for trinity player --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- CONTENT --><!--[--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>A new report from California\u2019s nonpartisan Legislative Analyst\u2019s Office acknowledges the state\u2019s sky-high revenues due to artificial intelligence enthusiasm. But it warns legislators to be aware of a potential \u201cbubble\u201d when drafting next year\u2019s budget.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/sandiegorelocationnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/10\/ahead-of-2028-olympics-ca-signs-194-million-contract-on-911-network-deployment-6\/\">Ahead of 2028 Olympics, CA signs $194 million contract on 911 network deployment<\/a><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The updated forecast comes one week before Gov. Gavin Newsom is expected to release his updated budget proposal, called the May Revision. Newsom\u2019s January proposal was far rosier than the LAO\u2019s November forecast, mostly due to the LAO accounting for an anticipated stock downturn.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>In the months since, as enthusiasm around AI has grown, the stock market and expectations about income tax collections have continued to climb. The LAO said in its Thursday report that revenues would be $25 billion higher than the governor had proposed in his January budget. However, an expectation of a downturn is still built into their advice, according to the LAO\u2019s office, which warned legislators in its report that there is a \u201chigh risk of reversal.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt is now hard to ignore that the stock market appears, on its face, to be in a speculative bubble, rivaled only by the dot-com boom and the Roaring Twenties,\u201d the report said. \u201cSuch speculative episodes almost always end in dramatic reversals.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Plus, the $25 billion number can\u2019t just be tacked on to the \u201cmoney coming in\u201d column, since a fair bit of it will have to go to K-14 education due to constitutional budget requirements. That might leave around $12 billion of additional flexibility for the governor and lawmakers to work with, according to the report.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The LAO has continued to advise the Legislature to take steps to address an imbalance between California\u2019s government spending and its reliable revenue supply. The office recommended the state be prepared for revenues to be tens of billions lower within one to two years.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/sandiegorelocationnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/10\/uber-spends-big-on-push-to-limit-car-crash-lawsuits-kneecap-trial-attorneys-4\/\">Uber spends big on push to limit car crash lawsuits, kneecap trial attorneys<\/a><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>\u201cGiven how strong the stock market is now \u2014 and likely upcoming big initial public offerings (IPOs) \u2014 my personal view is that LAO\u2019s revenue assumptions are quite conservative in 2026-27,\u201d wrote Assembly budget advisor Jason Sisney in a newsletter distributed Thursday.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas is expected to release a plan outlining the Assembly\u2019s priorities this week.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Senate President Pro Tem Monique Lim\u00f3n and her budget team released their proposal in April, a plan that would restore billions of dollars for programs that Newsom proposed cutting in his plan, including for K-12 schools, climate programs, childcare slots and homelessness assistance funding. Leaders did not propose any cuts, simply saying that \u201cspecifics of the spending reductions will be developed through the budget process.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The public will likely get a better understanding of what those cuts may be next week, in the May Revision.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Newsom, Lim\u00f3n and Rivas will continue working toward a budget agreement in the following weeks. A final, balanced budget needs to be passed by June 15.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/sandiegorelocationnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/10\/csu-system-opens-pathway-for-3-new-reduced-credit-degrees-what-to-know-7\/\">CSU system opens pathway for 3 new, reduced-credit degrees. What to know<\/a><\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--]--><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>California\u2019s nonpartisan LAO flags potential stock-driven revenue bubble and urges caution as Gov. Newsom prepares the May Revision for the 2026-27 budget.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1130,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1182","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-capitol-alert"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\u2018Reaching bubble territory\u2019: California\u2019s Capitol watchdog advises fiscal prudence - San Diego Relocation News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sandiegorelocationnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/10\/reaching-bubble-territory-californias-capitol-watchdog-advises-fiscal-prudence-7\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u2018Reaching bubble territory\u2019: California\u2019s Capitol watchdog advises fiscal prudence - San Diego Relocation News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"California\u2019s nonpartisan LAO flags potential stock-driven revenue bubble and urges caution as Gov. 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