{"id":1301,"date":"2026-05-11T12:02:25","date_gmt":"2026-05-11T12:02:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sandiegorelocationnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/11\/jpmorgan-issues-stark-warning-on-gas-prices-and-inflation\/"},"modified":"2026-05-11T12:02:25","modified_gmt":"2026-05-11T12:02:25","slug":"jpmorgan-issues-stark-warning-on-gas-prices-and-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sandiegorelocationnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/11\/jpmorgan-issues-stark-warning-on-gas-prices-and-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"JPMorgan issues stark warning on gas prices and inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"<article><!-- --><!-- --><!-- WPS-5038 -- removed the script from WPS and added the placeholder for trinity player --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- CONTENT --><!--[--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The <strong>U.S.-Iran conflict<\/strong>, now in its third month, has <strong>torn through global oil supply<\/strong> at a historic pace. <\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/sandiegorelocationnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/11\/may-11-earthquake-of-2-1-magnitude-detected-close-to-silver-springs-nv\/\">May 11: Earthquake of 2.1 magnitude detected close to Silver Springs, NV<\/a><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Yet prices at the pump, while painful, haven&#8217;t spiked as violently as past crises might suggest. <\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>JPMorgan<\/strong> says it&#8217;s a <strong>warning sign<\/strong> that something far more unsettling is occurring beneath the surface.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>For everyday Americans, the stakes couldn&#8217;t be more personal. <strong>Gas prices, grocery bills, <\/strong>and<strong> even airfares<\/strong> are all tied to what happens next.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h2><strong>Oil prices will impact consumer spending<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>To understand what JPMorgan (JPM) is flagging, it helps to <strong>know how oil markets work in a crisis<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>When supply gets disrupted, there are essentially two pressure-relief valves. The first is <strong>spare production capacity<\/strong>, where other<strong> oil-producing countries ramp up output to cover the shortfall<\/strong>. <\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h3><strong>More<\/strong><strong>Economy:<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Ernst &amp; Young drops stunning take on economy as oil jumps<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Treasure secretary delivers surprise take on the economy<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Powell sends message on U.S. economy and AI-related job loss fear<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The second is global inventories, the <strong>strategic stockpiles nations hold<\/strong> for exactly these moments.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Both valves are now wide open, and the math still doesn&#8217;t work. According to JPMorgan global commodities strategy head Natasha Kaneva:<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Global supply disruptions<\/strong>reached 13.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, roughly 14% of the world&#8217;s total demand. <\/li>\n<li>Spare capacity from <strong>Saudi Arabia<\/strong> and the <strong>United Arab Emirates<\/strong> is <strong>effectively offline <\/strong>due to closures of the Strait of Hormuz. <\/li>\n<li>So the world has <strong>leaned hard on inventories<\/strong> instead, drawing down a staggering 7.1 million bpd in April 2026.<\/li>\n<li>Even with that extraordinary drawdown, the market is still short by an estimated two million bpd.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Kaneva emphasized:<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Commodities markets are always forced into equilibrium: the market must clear. If production falls short of demand, the gap can&#8217;t persist.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h2><strong>American drivers are feeling the heat<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s where things get personal.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>When prices rise high enough and shortages deepen, people simply buy less oil. That&#8217;s <strong>demand destruction<\/strong>, and it&#8217;s already happening on a scale the world hasn&#8217;t seen since the 2008 financial crisis.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>NurPhoto\/Getty Images<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>Global oil demand<\/strong>dropped by 4.3 million bpd in April. That&#8217;s nearly double the <strong>peak loss of demand<\/strong> recorded during the financial crisis, and it happened at price levels that don&#8217;t look extreme relative to historical highs. <\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/sandiegorelocationnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/11\/may-11-earthquake-of-3-2-magnitude-recorded-close-to-redway-ca\/\">May 11: Earthquake of 3.2 magnitude recorded close to Redway, CA<\/a><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>According to a Yahoo Finance report, <strong>physical oil in some Asian markets<\/strong> has traded as high as <strong>$210 per barrel<\/strong>, while buyers in Sri Lanka reportedly paid close to <strong>$286 a barrel for near-term deliveries<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Most of that demand pain, about 87%, is concentrated in the Middle East, Asian frontier economies, and Africa, regions with thin financial buffers. <\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>But the pressure is creeping toward Western consumers, too.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>U.S. regular gasoline averaged <strong>$4.05 per gallon as of late April<\/strong>, up sharply from roughly $2.88 before the war started. <\/li>\n<li>Higher pump prices are already reducing driving. Elevated airfares are starting to weigh on flight demand. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>JPMorgan&#8217;s conclusion is pointed: <strong>American and European consumers may need to absorb more of the adjustment ahead<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Goldman Sachs estimates <strong>Persian Gulf oil output<\/strong> is down roughly 57% from pre-war levels. <\/li>\n<li>Citi has warned that if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted into June, <strong>Brent crude could hit $150 per barrel<\/strong>. <\/li>\n<li>JPMorgan&#8217;s own near-term warning puts the range at $120 to $130 a barrel, with <strong>$150-plus possible if the disruption drags into mid-May<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h2><strong>Inflation&#8217;s next move and what the Fed does about it<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>So what does all of this mean for the bigger economic picture?<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>Related: Bessent makes stunning Hormuz move that could reset oil prices<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>JPMorgan has mapped three inflation scenarios, all hinging on one variable: how long the energy shock lasts.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>In the worst case, a re-escalation of conflict that pushes crude well above $120 a barrel through the summer could push <strong>headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation to top 5% and stay there<\/strong>. <\/li>\n<li>In the middle scenario, modeled on Russia&#8217;s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, inflation peaks near 4% before pulling back. <\/li>\n<li>Even in the most optimistic outcome, where diplomacy moves quickly and oil prices normalize gradually, CPI is likely to remain above 3% well into early 2027.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>JPMorgan&#8217;s base case puts headline CPI at 4% by May<\/strong>. From there, falling oil prices, easing tariffs, and softer rent inflation could drag it back down toward 3% by December, and below 2% by April 2027.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The catch? In every scenario, inflation stays above the Federal Reserve&#8217;s 2% target through early next year. <\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>Rate cuts remain off the table for now<\/strong>, and the Fed won&#8217;t move until the data gives it a clear reason to act.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>For consumers already strained by higher gas prices and elevated borrowing costs, JPMorgan&#8217;s message is sobering: relief may be coming, but it won&#8217;t come quickly.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>Related: Chevron CEO sends blunt message on oil, economy<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><i>The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/sandiegorelocationnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/11\/from-seed-to-sale-what-vcs-want-in-biotech-startups\/\">From Seed to Sale: What VC\u2019s Want in Biotech Startups<\/a><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--]--><!-- --><\/p>\n<p>This story was originally published <span>May 11, 2026 at 4:07 AM<span>.<\/span><\/span><!-- --><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The U.S.-Iran conflict, now in its third month, has torn through global oil supply at a historic pace.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1300,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1301","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interesting"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - 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