{"id":3169,"date":"2026-05-24T13:31:45","date_gmt":"2026-05-24T13:31:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sandiegorelocationnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/24\/morgan-stanley-sets-280-take-two-stock-price-target-ahead-of-gta-vi\/"},"modified":"2026-05-24T13:31:45","modified_gmt":"2026-05-24T13:31:45","slug":"morgan-stanley-sets-280-take-two-stock-price-target-ahead-of-gta-vi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sandiegorelocationnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/24\/morgan-stanley-sets-280-take-two-stock-price-target-ahead-of-gta-vi\/","title":{"rendered":"Morgan Stanley sets $280 Take-Two stock price target ahead of GTA VI"},"content":{"rendered":"<article><!-- --><!-- --><!-- WPS-5038 -- removed the script from WPS and added the placeholder for trinity player --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- CONTENT --><!--[--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) just delivered one of the cleanest earnings beats the company has posted in years, and Morgan Stanley isn&#8217;t changing its tune.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/sandiegorelocationnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/24\/sacramento-tax-auctions-can-be-risky-bets-heres-what-to-know\/\">Sacramento tax auctions can be risky bets. Here\u2019s what to know<\/a><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The Wall Street firm maintained its Overweight rating and $280 price target on TTWO after Take-Two&#8217;s fiscal fourth quarter results, which landed on May 21. <\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Bookings beat estimates by 3%, and EPS came in 77% above Morgan Stanley&#8217;s own forecast, driven by broad strength across GTA Online, NBA 2K, Red Dead Redemption, and the Zynga mobile segment.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>The bigger signal<\/strong>, though, isn&#8217;t the quarter. It&#8217;s what Morgan Stanley said about <strong>the six months ahead<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The firm sees GTA VI&#8217;s confirmed November 19 launch as a structurally rare setup for TTWO shares, one where investor attention is rising while near-term execution risk remains limited. <\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>That combination has historically been a meaningful tailwind for gaming publisher stocks.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Bloomberg \/ Getty Images<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h2><strong>What Morgan Stanley&#8217;s $280 target actually means for TTWO investors<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley&#8217;s $280 price target is based on a discounted cash flow model that assumes a roughly 8% weighted-average cost of capital and 3% long-term growth. <\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>At the current share price of <strong>$238.08<\/strong>, that <strong>implies approximately 18% upside<\/strong> to the base case. The bull case sits at $360, a 51% premium, while the bear case is $170, reflecting a 29% downside.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Overweight, in Morgan Stanley&#8217;s rating system, means <strong>the firm expects TTWO&#8217;s total return to exceed the average for its coverage universe<\/strong> over the next 12 to 18 months, on a risk-adjusted basis. <\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>More Entertainment Stocks:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Morgan Stanley issues bullish call on Netflix stock post-earnings<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Roblox CEO issues stark forecast on 2026 bookings<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Morgan Stanley resets Spotify stock price target<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>It is not a Buy rating in the traditional sense, but it carries similar directional conviction.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Notably, <strong>96% of analysts<\/strong> tracked by Investing.com currently rate TTWO as a <strong>Strong Buy<\/strong>, with consensus price targets ranging from <strong>$170 to $320<\/strong>. The average sits at <strong>$279.51<\/strong>, roughly in line with Morgan Stanley&#8217;s view.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h3><strong>What the bull thesis requires to hold up<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>For Morgan Stanley&#8217;s base case to play out, <strong>four conditions need to stay on track<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>GTA VI launches on November 19<\/strong> with no further delays.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Unit sales reach approximately 40 million<\/strong> in fiscal year 2027, matching Morgan Stanley&#8217;s base estimate.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Zynga mobile continues recovering<\/strong>, after posting its highest bookings since the acquisition in Q4.<\/li>\n<li><strong>In-game monetization remains healthy<\/strong> across GTA Online and NBA 2K.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h2><strong>The historical pattern that&#8217;s driving Morgan Stanley&#8217;s confidence<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley&#8217;s analysis of prior major game launches shows <strong>a consistent pattern<\/strong>: publisher stocks average <strong>18% appreciation in the six months preceding a highly anticipated release<\/strong>, as Morgan Stanley Research reports. <\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>That covers titles including GTA V, Red Dead Redemption 2, Call of Duty: Black Ops 4, and Battlefield 6.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>The mechanism is straightforward<\/strong>. Marketing campaigns intensify in the <strong>3 to 6 months<\/strong> before launch, drawing institutional and retail attention back to the stock at a point when near-term execution risk is still low. <\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/sandiegorelocationnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/24\/old-schools-still-cool-elk-grove-softball-joins-baseball-with-cif-section-crown-2\/\">Old school\u2019s still cool. Elk Grove softball joins baseball with CIF section crown<\/a><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>Related: Morgan Stanley resets PANW stock price target on demand trends<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>Investors<\/strong> are essentially <strong>pricing in anticipation<\/strong> rather than results.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>GTA VI sits squarely in that window now. With the <strong>November 19 date confirmed<\/strong> by Take-Two management on the earnings call, the pre-launch clock is running.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>The scale of the opportunity<\/strong> is also worth noting. If GTA VI achieves a similar install base penetration to GTA V, Morgan Stanley&#8217;s model implies approximately <strong>45 million units sold<\/strong>, 12% above the firm&#8217;s base estimate. <\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>If dollar spend per user matches GTA V levels, the revenue upside climbs to roughly <strong>68% above Morgan Stanley&#8217;s <\/strong>current<strong> $1.9 billion <\/strong>bookings<strong> projection<\/strong> for the title. <\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>That would translate to <strong>approximately $3.2 billion in net bookings<\/strong> from GTA VI alone.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h2><strong>TTWO vs. the S&amp;P 500: where the stock stands before the launch countdown<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Heading into earnings, TTWO had underperformed meaningfully, and the gap with broader markets is worth understanding clearly.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Over the <strong>past 12 months<\/strong>, <strong>TTWO<\/strong> returned roughly <strong>-1%<\/strong>, compared to the <strong>S&amp;P 500<\/strong>&#8216;s gain of approximately<strong> 29%<\/strong>, according to Alpha Spread. <\/li>\n<li>On a <strong>year-to-date basis<\/strong>, <strong>TTWO<\/strong> was down about <strong>7.6%<\/strong> before earnings, trailing the <strong>S&amp;P 500&#8217;s 8.6% gain<\/strong>, Barchart reports.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>That underperformance reflects investor impatience<\/strong>, not business deterioration. <\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Take-Two&#8217;s underlying business came in stronger than the company itself had forecast, suggesting <strong>the pre-earnings underperformance was a sentiment gap,<\/strong> not a fundamental one. <\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>The market moved quickly to close that gap<\/strong> after the results dropped, and Morgan Stanley sees more of that closing ahead as November gets closer.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h2><strong>What still needs to happen before TTWO reaches $280<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Three things still need to happen for the $280 target to hold:<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>GTA VI must launch on time<\/strong> with strong review scores and early unit velocity<\/li>\n<li><strong>Operating leverage must materialize<\/strong> as development and marketing costs are absorbed post-launch<\/li>\n<li><strong>Recurring revenue from GTA Online and NBA 2K<\/strong> must stay stable, providing a base beneath the launch pop<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>The risks are real<\/strong>. Gamers have shown resistance to in-game transactions recently. If Rockstar renegotiates more favorable contracts, Take-Two&#8217;s margins could take a hit. And any Zynga mobile weakness would pressure the overall bookings mix.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h2><strong>The bottom line for TTWO investors<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>TTWO enters the next six months with a confirmed blockbuster launch, a business generating over <strong>$600 million<\/strong> in annual operating cash flow, and a <strong>Wall Street consensus<\/strong> that is overwhelmingly <strong>bullish<\/strong>. <\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley&#8217;s $280 target asks investors to believe that GTA VI executes and that the pre-launch appreciation pattern holds. History says it usually does. <\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>The downside scenario<\/strong> at $170 remains a real possibility <strong>if the game disappoints<\/strong> or monetization trends weaken. <\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>For investors who can hold through launch-window volatility, <strong>Morgan Stanley&#8217;s position<\/strong> is clear: <strong>the setup favors the stock.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>Related: Intuit earnings put Morgan Stanley stock forecast to the test<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><i>The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/sandiegorelocationnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/24\/liberty-g-sabrina-ionescu-to-make-season-debut-vs-wings\/\">Liberty G Sabrina Ionescu to make season debut vs. Wings<\/a><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--]--><!-- --><\/p>\n<p>This story was originally published <span>May 24, 2026 at 6:03 AM<span>.<\/span><\/span><!-- --><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) just delivered one of the cleanest earnings beats the company has posted in years, and Morgan Stanley isn&#39;t changing its tune.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3168,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3169","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interesting"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - 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