{"id":32,"date":"2026-05-07T09:11:04","date_gmt":"2026-05-07T09:11:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sandiegorelocationnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/07\/whiter-wealthier-primary-voters-may-shape-californias-governor-race\/"},"modified":"2026-05-07T09:11:04","modified_gmt":"2026-05-07T09:11:04","slug":"whiter-wealthier-primary-voters-may-shape-californias-governor-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sandiegorelocationnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/07\/whiter-wealthier-primary-voters-may-shape-californias-governor-race\/","title":{"rendered":"Whiter, wealthier primary voters may shape California\u2019s governor race"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Californians began voting Monday in this year\u2019s primary election. The race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom remains unsettled, but is beginning to consolidate.<\/p>\n

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With no clear frontrunner \u2014 and with primary turnout typically far lower than in November \u2014 the voters who do show up could have an outsized say in who becomes the next governor.<\/p>\n

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As early voting sites opened across the state and voters began receiving ballots by mail, a new poll commissioned by the California Democratic Party showed Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra tied for first place. Each drew 18% support from likely voters.<\/p>\n

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The survey is the latest sign that Becerra, former California attorney general and U.S. secretary of health, has reenergized a campaign that had been lagging after former Rep. Eric Swalwell suspended his bid last month amid sexual assault and misconduct allegations. Swalwell has denied the accusations.<\/p>\n

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President Donald Trump\u2019s endorsement of Hilton appears to have reinforced his standing as the leading Republican over Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, who polled at 14%. Several Democrats also remain competitive, including billionaire Tom Steyer at 12%, former Rep. Katie Porter at 8% and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan at 7%.<\/p>\n

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The share of undecided voters has dropped 10 percentage points since March 17 and now stands at 14%.<\/p>\n

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Recent history suggests primary turnout will be relatively low. In 2018, the last time California had a gubernatorial primary with no incumbent, nearly 38% of registered voters cast ballots compared to 65% in November.<\/p>\n

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Overall, a little over a quarter of eligible voters cast ballots in that year\u2019s primary.<\/p>\n

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Research consistently shows primary voters are whiter, wealthier, older, more partisan and more highly educated than the broader electorate.<\/p>\n

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\u201cGubernatorial primaries are highly consequential,\u201d said Mindy Romero, founder of the Center for Inclusive Democracy, a nonpartisan research center. \u201cBut the data and the trends tell us that even if it\u2019s a good year for a primary overall, it\u2019s going to be lower turnout.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Romero said campaigns often don\u2019t invest in reaching lower-propensity voters, who can be harder to contact and persuade.<\/p>\n

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