{"id":3328,"date":"2026-05-24T18:31:53","date_gmt":"2026-05-24T18:31:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sandiegorelocationnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/24\/morgan-stanley-resets-walmart-forecast-on-high-inflation\/"},"modified":"2026-05-24T18:31:53","modified_gmt":"2026-05-24T18:31:53","slug":"morgan-stanley-resets-walmart-forecast-on-high-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sandiegorelocationnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/24\/morgan-stanley-resets-walmart-forecast-on-high-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"Morgan Stanley resets Walmart forecast on high inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"<article><!-- --><!-- --><!-- WPS-5038 -- removed the script from WPS and added the placeholder for trinity player --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><!-- CONTENT --><!--[--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Walmart (WMT) had a rough Thursday. <strong>The stock dropped roughly 7.3% on May 21<\/strong>, 2026, closing at $121.34 after a cautious second-quarter outlook overshadowed otherwise solid first-quarter results, CNBC reports.<\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/sandiegorelocationnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/24\/russia-deploys-oreshnik-missile-in-massive-attack-on-kiev-region\/\">Russia deploys Oreshnik missile in massive attack on Kiev region<\/a><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The selloff dragged shares more than 10% below their 52-week high, but <strong>Morgan Stanley isn&#8217;t flinching.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>In a note dated May 22, 2026, analysts Simeon Gutman and Pedro Gil reiterated their Overweight rating on WMT and held the firm&#8217;s $140 price target steady, implying about 15% upside from current levels.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The timing matters. U.S. inflation jumped to 3.8% in April, the highest reading since May 2023, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Energy and food costs led the surge, and that&#8217;s exactly <strong>the environment Walmart was built to win<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Scott Olson \/ Getty Images<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h2>Why Morgan Stanley is leaning into Walmart amid a 3.8% inflation backdrop<\/h2>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley&#8217;s thesis hinges on what it calls Walmart&#8217;s &#8220;eCommerce flywheel,&#8221; a self-reinforcing loop of online sales, advertising, and membership income.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>All three legs are firing in the first quarter.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Online sales<\/strong>: roughly +25% year over year<\/li>\n<li><strong>Walmart Connect<\/strong> (advertising): +44%<\/li>\n<li><strong>Walmart+ membership<\/strong> income: ~+28%<\/li>\n<li>Marketplace <strong>gross merchandise<\/strong> value: ~+50%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>The flywheel<\/strong> generated a record ~$1.1 billion in quarterly operating profit for Walmart U.S., per the Morgan Stanley note. <\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Incremental operating margins on that mix held at about 12%, with higher-margin advertising and membership offsetting losses still bleeding from online fulfillment.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>Walmart&#8217;s most profitable revenue streams are also its fastest-growing.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h2>How Walmart is using inflation to widen its grocery moat<\/h2>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the cue Morgan Stanley keeps pointing to.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Walmart U.S.&#8217;s like-for-like grocery inflation ran just +0.6% year over year in Q1 versus +2.5% for the broader Food-at-Home Consumer Price Index, per the note. That&#8217;s roughly 190 basis points (bps) of separation, and it widened sequentially.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>In plain English:<strong> Walmart is keeping its prices down while the rest of the grocery industry passes inflation through to shoppers.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>Related: Morgan Stanley resets PANW stock price target on demand trends<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>This is the trade-down dynamic TheStreet flagged before earnings, and it&#8217;s accelerating. Higher-income households earning more than $100,000 a year now drive the majority of Walmart&#8217;s market share gains.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Beef prices climbed 14.8% over the past year, and gasoline jumped 28.4%, CNBC reports. When a tank of gas and a pound of ground chuck both move that hard, <strong>even higher earners hunt for value.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h2>What the gross margin numbers actually tell investors<\/h2>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>On paper, Walmart U.S. gross margin barely budged year over year, ticking up only slightly. But that&#8217;s not the full story. <\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>More Retail Stocks:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Walmart earnings reveal concerning shift in customer behavior<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Bank of America revamps Amazon stock target after earnings<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>BofA sees more room for Home Depot shares<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Strip out the cost of higher fuel prices and the impact of fresh grocery price rollbacks, and underlying gross margin expansion was meaningfully stronger.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The mix shift toward advertising and membership is doing the heavy lifting, since both are far more profitable than selling groceries or general merchandise.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h2>Where the near-term profit pressure is coming from<\/h2>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The market sold the stock because Walmart&#8217;s revenue outlook for the next quarter came in slightly below Wall Street&#8217;s expectations, per FinancialContent. The miss was small, but enough to spook investors looking for a clean beat.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley says Walmart&#8217;s operating profit still grew in the low single digits last quarter once you strip out currency swings, and <strong>the drag on profits is easy to spot:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/sandiegorelocationnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/24\/new-vip-entertainment-lounge-unveiled-at-sacramento-area-casino-2\/\">New VIP entertainment lounge unveiled at Sacramento-area casino<\/a><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Higher fuel expenses<\/strong> tied to the energy spike<\/li>\n<li><strong>Associate enrollment costs<\/strong> in benefit programs<\/li>\n<li><strong>Medical cost inflation<\/strong> hitting health insurance<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The bank also nudged its earnings forecasts for the next two fiscal years slightly lower, a minor trim rather than a meaningful cut. <strong>Walmart&#8217;s full guidance and risk factors sit in its SEC filings.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h2>How WMT stacks up against Amazon in the retail share fight<\/h2>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>WMT is still up roughly 7.9% year-to-date even after Thursday&#8217;s drop, FinancialContent notes.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>In the battle for new retail spending, Walmart and Amazon (AMZN) are still grabbing the lion&#8217;s share. Walmart pulled in close to 8 cents of every new dollar Americans spent at retail in the first quarter, a step down from the prior quarter.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Amazon stayed well ahead, accounting for roughly a fifth of incremental retail spending, though its share also cooled from the previous quarter.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Together, the two giants captured nearly 30 cents of every additional dollar shoppers spent, according to Census Bureau data cited by Morgan Stanley. The pie is getting split a little wider, but the same two players are still doing most of the eating.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h2>What still needs to happen for the $140 target to play out<\/h2>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley&#8217;s $140 target assumes investors will keep paying a steep premium for Walmart&#8217;s low-price strategy, roughly double what they&#8217;ve historically paid over the past decade.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>This premium reflects a bet that Walmart&#8217;s low-price strategy is quietly building a much more profitable business underneath.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>For $140 to materialize, the bull case needs<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>U.S. comparable sales accelerating<\/strong> to mid-to-high single digits<\/li>\n<li><strong>Sustained eCommerce growth<\/strong> above 40%<\/li>\n<li><strong>Walmart Connect and membership scaling<\/strong> without diluting margins<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>The bear case<\/strong> kicks in if <strong>eCommerce losses re-expand<\/strong> or <strong>U.S. online growth slows<\/strong> below 15%.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<h2>The takeaway for WMT investors<\/h2>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley is essentially telling investors that the recent selloff was due to near-term noise and that the long-term buy signal still holds.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The eCommerce flywheel, the widening grocery price gap, and the mix shift toward advertising and membership are intact, Walmart&#8217;s investor relations data shows. <\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Walmart remains a 52-year Dividend Aristocrat with a conservative payout ratio, giving management room to keep returning cash even if profit flow-through stays choppy.<\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>For long-term investors, the question is whether you trust Walmart to keep widening the gap on Amazon and traditional grocers through another inflationary cycle. <\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>The setup looks similar to past cycles when WMT used pricing power to gain share, and Morgan Stanley is betting it works again.<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p>Just don&#8217;t expect a quick rebound. <strong>At 43 times earnings, this stock needs profit, not just promises.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><strong>Related: Morgan Stanley resets Dell stock price target<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!--]--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><i>The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.<\/i><\/p>\n<p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/sandiegorelocationnews.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/24\/ai-is-getting-worse-as-google-and-anthropic-nerf-ai-models-and-limit-usage\/\">AI is getting worse as Google and Anthropic nerf AI models and limit usage<\/a><\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--]--><!-- --><\/p>\n<p>This story was originally published <span>May 24, 2026 at 11:03 AM<span>.<\/span><\/span><!-- --><\/p>\n<p><!-- --><!-- --><!-- --><\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Walmart (WMT) had a rough Thursday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3327,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3328","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interesting"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - 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