Three Bold Predictions for Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe’s All-American U.S. Open Semifinal

One thing’s for certain: An American man will play for the U.S. Open title. Will that be Ben Shelton or Frances Tiafoe? We’ll find out on Friday when the two go at it in the marquee men’s semifinal match, slated for Friday at 7 p.m. ET at Arthur Ashe Stadium.

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The two are both coming off grueling, incredible wins. Tiafoe came back from down two sets to defeat the 22-year-old American Alex Michelsen on Tuesday. It was an incredible comeback, a signature moment for Tiafoe after he disappointed at the U.S. Open last year, the tournament where he’s had his best career moments.

Even in the thrill of a massive victory, Tiafoe had the wherewithal to stop his celebration to embrace Michelsen, who broke down in his opponent and friend’s arms. It was the moment of the tournament that showcased why we all love sports.

In Shelton’s case, the marathon match between Tiafoe and Michelsen followed by a three-setter between Jessica Pegula and Emma Navarro to start the night session on Ashe delayed his match with Carlos Alcaraz to after 11 p.m. ET. Shelton had never beaten Alcaraz before, but the door was open as the Spaniard entered the U.S. Open on a prolonged layoff due to a wrist injury that kept him sidelined since April.

Still, Alcaraz looked like his normal self for the most part with a real shot to win the tournament, especially after he took the first set on Shelton. Then, something was off. Alcaraz had issues with his forehand and fell flat on his signature, diabolical drop shots. The American took the next two sets, but Carlos wasn’t done yet. Alcaraz won the fourth and the two went to a super tiebreak in the fifth set to end a wild day of tennis.

Shelton hit an ace on match point at 3:33 a.m. Wednesday morning to secure the win of his career after four hours and 28 minutes of an absolute slugfest. Now, the 23-year-old has a chance to become the first American man to win a major since Andy Roddick won the U.S. Open back in 2003. Tiafoe has that same opportunity with either Alexander Zverev or Karen Khachanov ahead for the winner in the final.

Now feels like the best chance to end the drought with Alcaraz out and Jannik Sinner’s withdrawal from the final major of the year due to a knee issue. Zverev, this year’s French Open winner, could be waiting on the other side, so nothing will come easy for the winner between Shelton and Tiafoe.

With Friday’s all-American semifinal giving either player the chance to finally break through, here’s how we see Shelton and Tiafoe’s match playing out with three bold predictions ahead of what could be another thriller:

Frances Tiafoe wins the first set and takes control of the crowd

Tiafoe stormed back from down two sets in his afternoon quarterfinal classic against Michelsen. You better believe he doesn’t want to find himself in the same situation again, though. Michelsen turned 22 just two weeks ago and hasn’t been in that big of a spot before, let alone in his home major. Shelton made a run to the U.S. Open semifinals in 2023 (and beat Tiafoe to get there), so he’s been here before. Still, Frances knows he can’t get into a hole. Even if Shelton lost to Novak Djokovic in straight sets in his last semifinals run, he’s made three trips to the quarterfinals or better at majors since and he has two ATP Masters 1000 titles under his belt. Tiafoe remains more experienced, especially at Flushing Meadows. Who could forget his signature win over Rafael Nadal to get to the U.S. Open quarterfinals in 2022?

Both players came into the final major of the year in good form. Shelton won his second straight Masters 1000 in Canada and Tiafoe made a run to the final at the Cincinnati Open. With a semifinal comprised of two Americans, the crowd should switch between the two on a dime. Especially with two showmen who know how to get the fans involved. Both had two full days to reset after their thrilling quarterfinal wins on Tuesday. Shelton did play later, though, which could help Tiafoe even with plenty of time for his opponent to catch up on sleep after playing well past 3 a.m. More importantly, Tiafoe knows he can’t come out sluggish like he did against Michelsen and he’ll do everything in his power to draw first blood.

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We get another five-set thriller

Shelton and Tiafoe both went the distance on Tuesday. Why not do it once again?

In the four meetings between the two, neither player really dominated any match. Two of those meetings-and the only two matches between them at a major-came at the U.S. Open. The most recent meeting at Flushing Meadows was in 2024 when Tiafoe took the final two sets to emerge victorious in a five-set thriller which sent him to the quarterfinals.. Shelton won their other U.S. Open meeting the year prior as he finished Tiafoe in four sets after dropping the first.

If you ask either player, I’m sure neither would want to go five sets once again. However, that may be what it takes in what would be the first trip to a major final for both of them. Tiafoe was pushed to five sets in the first round against Martin Damm. Shelton has just one three-set win thus far in the tournament, which came in the fourth round against Stefanos Tsitsipas. The two American semifinalists are in top shape, which could lead us to another marathon match. At least this one won’t go past three in the morning!

Ben Shelton wins in a 10-point tiebreak

If we’re going the distance, let’s go all the way.

Both Shelton and Tiafoe survived a final-set super tiebreak in their previous match. Both are coming off signature wins. Both are hot and both players will have the support of the crowd at Ashe. That’s a recipe that could take us to a 10-point tiebreak to determine which American will move on to the U.S. Open final.

Shelton’s serve could overpower Tiafoe and he played the best he ever has in return games on Tuesday night against Alcaraz. That said, Tiafoe has beat him before and has some big wins as of recent. He already beat Valentin Vacherot and upset Daniil Medvedev at the U.S. Open. In Cincinnati, he defeated Félix Auger-Aliassime, Lorenzo Musetti and the exciting young American Learner Tien.

At the end of the day, however, I give Shelton the edge in a close one. He’s too powerful and the win over Alcaraz showed he’s able to adjust on the fly to give him the best chance to win. Both players know that this may be their best shot to ever get a major. Alcaraz came off a long injury absence (which doesn’t diminish Shelton’s win), Sinner withdrew and Djokovic, who’s not getting any younger, lost in the first round. That opportunity coming at their home major? Priceless.

My gut always told me the next American man to win a major would be Shelton, so I have to stick with it. Tiafoe’s previous deep runs at majors coupled with his ability to muck things up will keep him right there. However, I see Shelton hanging up the phone to close out the semifinal Friday at Arthur Ashe.

This article was originally published on www.si.com as Three Bold Predictions for Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe’s All-American U.S. Open Semifinal.

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