By admin 
With a little more than a month before early voting begins, Texas’ unusually competitive Senate race is entering a decisive stretch shaped by President Donald Trump, a flood of campaign money and the fight to turn out voters.
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Trump just wrapped a two-day celebration of his MAGA movement in Dallas, a combination rally-fundraiser with many trappings of a traditional presidential convention.
The marquee matchup between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico dominated the talk onstage about the November elections.
Paxton has his party’s structural advantage, Trump’s backing and a late surge of GOP money. Talarico is counting on strong turnout among Democrats and independents concerned about the economy and the war in Iran.
The tight race is drawing national attention and could help determine which party controls the Senate during the final two years of Trump’s presidency. Here’s what comes next.
Trump factor
Can Trump transfer his support to Paxton?
Trump gave Paxton a hearty endorsement at the Republican midterm convention, even as he repeatedly joked about the attorney general’s appearance and style.
“I’ll be coming back to Texas, because we have to elect Ken Paxton,” Trump said Wednesday. He then added that “some may not like the way he dresses,” before acknowledging that Paxton looked “very spiffy” in his blue suit when he spoke at the event.
Trump again mixed ridicule with praise during his Thursday speech as Paxton sat in the stands at American Airlines Center. “I don’t really like the way he looks,” Trump said, before calling Paxton “our greatest attorney general” and saying he should be in the Senate.
Paxton said he was not offended by Trump’s ridicule, describing it as “kind of funny.”
“He kind of jokes around with people that he cares about,” Paxton said last week during an interview with Bloomberg. “It’s just the way it is. There’s no one that gets by it. I don’t care if it’s the attorney general of the United States or whether it’s Ted Cruz. He does his thing. It’s just the way he is. He’s a funny guy.”
Republicans are looking to Trump to help turn out MAGA supporters who have been less reliable when he is not on the ballot. Democrats are trying to make the race a referendum on a president who has been weighed down in the polls.
Turnout test
Which campaign can motivate less-frequent voters once early voting begins Oct. 19?
Trump closed the convention Thursday by urging Republicans to overcome the apathy that often affects the party controlling the White House during a midterm election.
He asked attendees to raise their right hands and pledge to bring friends and relatives to the polls, “so help me God.” They should pretend he is on the ballot and vote, he said, or face eternal damnation.
“You know what happens if you don’t vote?” Trump said. “You go to hell.”
Democrats staged counterprogramming during the GOP affair, mocking it as a Trump-flattering vanity project that failed to connect with voters concerned about inflation and the war in Iran.
Talarico, a state representative from Austin, organized a food drive in Dallas during the convention, aiming to draw a contrast between public service and the Republicans he said were “toasting to their own corruption” at what he called “the billionaire ball.”
Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, a Democrat who narrowly lost his 2018 Senate bid to Republican Ted Cruz, was upbeat about turnout on his side.
O’Rourke called the Dallas event an act of “desperation” intended to “pump up” Paxton.
Race for cash
Can late GOP money erase Talarico’s advantage?
For months after Paxton defeated longtime Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican runoff, GOP leaders in Washington acted like a table of diners who just finished a pricey meal, waiting to see who reaches for the check first.
Many of those Capitol Republicans had supported Cornyn. He skipped the convention in Dallas and has refused to tap his extensive donor network on behalf of Paxton, who has lagged behind Talarico in fundraising.
The Paxton campaign and affiliated entities raised $9 million in the last quarter, while Talarico’s side collected $30 million.
That’s a key edge in a sprawling state with multiple media markets. And it allowed the Democrat to blanket the summer airwaves with get-to-know-me campaign ads while Paxton and his allies remained largely quiet.
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National Republicans are now beginning to pick up the slack.
MAGA Inc., Trump’s super PAC, recently announced a $10 million advertising campaign, while the Senate Leadership Fund has committed more than $10 million. Elon Musk’s America PAC and other Republican groups are also spending to support Paxton or attack Talarico.
Coalition-building
Can they reunite their parties?
Paxton and Talarico have sharply different paths to victory.
Republicans have won every statewide office in Texas since 1994, but Paxton must reunite GOP voters after a bruising primary and runoff against Cornyn.
That means holding his strength among rural and MAGA voters, keeping suburban Republicans and building on recent party gains among Hispanic voters.
The Dallas convention focused overwhelmingly on Trump and his MAGA movement, with few explicit appeals to Republican moderates or Cornyn supporters.
Talarico’s strategy is to combine overwhelming urban margins with continued party gains in the suburban counties, such as Collin County.
Talarico has sought to broaden his appeal by announcing endorsements last week from more than 20 current and former GOP legislators, judges and local officials.
Meanwhile, some Black voters remain frustrated by racial tensions that surfaced during Talarico’s primary contest against U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas.
Crockett has not campaigned with her former rival and is focusing on down-ballot candidates in advance of the Nov. 3 election.
Policy clashes
Will they debate, and over what?
Talarico has accepted invitations to three televised debates. Paxton’s campaign has not agreed to any of the proposed dates or hosts.
Paxton told Bloomberg that Talarico wants a debate with “a bunch of CNN reporters” who are his friends and that’s not going to happen.
“We will work something out probably before this is over,” Paxton said, but meeting Texans on the campaign trail is more important.
Talarico has accused Paxton of avoiding the debate stage to escape questions about allegations of corruption, including his impeachment by the GOP-led Texas House.
The Senate acquitted him, and Paxton has denied wrongdoing in his personal and professional life.
A debate would provide Texans with their clearest side-by-side comparison of the candidates and their proposals.
Paxton last month unveiled an economic plan that would grant new tax breaks for health care expenses, housing down payments and family benefits.
Talarico’s platform includes increasing taxes on billionaires and corporations, raising the minimum wage and creating a federal public health insurance program.
They also differ on abortion rights, gun laws, immigration and LGBTQ rights.
At the convention Wednesday, Paxton called Talarico “the most radical Democrat in Texas history” and “a Democratic socialist who never met a tax increase he didn’t love.”
Paxton launched a new campaign Friday criticizing his opponent’s record on transgender athletes in girls sports.
Talarico has said that “we have an affordability crisis because we have a corruption crisis” and called Paxton “the most corrupt politician in America” in campaign ads.
If the candidates never meet onstage, those ads – and many more to come – may provide voters with the principal comparison between them.
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This story was originally published September 13, 2026 at 11:59 AM.