When will California see its first snow? How El Niño could impact fall, winter

The start of fall brings changing leaves, pumpkin spice favorites and cooler temperatures.

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For many Californians, it also means the first snowfall of the season could be on the horizon.

According to the Farmers’ Almanac’s latest forecast, the timing of the first significant snow will vary widely across California depending on elevation and location.

“For many people, the first snowfall is the moment the season really changes,” the Farmers’ Almanac said in its Sept. 11 forecast.

This year, a strengthening El Niño could push California’s first snowfall later than usual, particularly at lower elevations, according to Sean Macaday, a meteorologist for The Sacramento Bee.

Whether you’re looking forward to hitting the slopes or building a snowman, here’s when and where snow could arrive in California in 2026:

When does the Farmers’ Almanac forecast the first snow in California?

The Farmers’ Almanac expects the first significant snowfall to arrive at different times across California.

Areas of Northern California, including Siskiyou, Modoc, Lassen, Plumas, Sierra and Placer counties, could begin seeing significant snow as early as late November.

Farther south, including Mono and Inyo counties, the first significant snowfall could arrive in December, according to the Farmers’ Almanac.

The timing can vary significantly from year to year.

“Elevation, latitude, nearby bodies of water and the weather pattern in a particular year can move the first snow considerably earlier or later,” the Farmers’ Almanac said.

Where does it typically snow in California?

Snowfall in California is largely determined by elevation, Macaday said.

The highest elevations can see snow relatively early in the season, while lower elevations might go much longer without seeing a flake.

That doesn’t mean snow is impossible in places such as Sacramento and Modesto.

The National Weather Service has recorded snowfall in Sacramento as far back as January 1879, when about a half-inch accumulated in the city.

Modesto has recorded snow four times since 1910, with less than 2 inches falling during each event.

Macaday said some higher elevations in California have already seen flurries over the past month and a half.

“California is really elevation driven,” Macaday said. “You would have to be at the top of Mount Whitney to see them.”

Mount Whitney is in the Sierra Nevada along the border of Inyo and Tulare counties and is the highest point in California.

What counts as snowfall?

According to the Farmers’ Almanac, these are the several ways meteorologists can describe the first snow of the season:

• First flakes: Snow is observed falling, but the flakes melt immediately without accumulating on the ground.
• First measurable snowfall: At least 0.1 inch of snow accumulates. This is the threshold commonly used in National Weather Service climate records.
• First significant snowfall: At least 1 inch accumulates, making the snowfall more noticeable and potentially requiring snow removal.

Those milestones don’t necessarily happen at the same time.

“Those dates can be weeks apart,” the Farmers’ Almanac said.

When does snow typically fall in California?

The Sierra Nevada is usually the first part of California to see snow each season, Macaday said.

Mammoth Lakes, in the Eastern Sierra, typically sees its first snow in late October.

Areas around South Lake Tahoe and Sequoia National Park generally begin seeing snow in early November, while Yosemite often sees its first snowfall around mid-November, according to Macaday.

“It’s very elevated driven,” he said.

The higher the elevation, the earlier snow is likely to arrive — and the longer it is likely to stick around.

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How will El Niño impact California’s snow season?

California’s snowfall this season could be affected by a potentially historic El Niño developing in the Pacific.

El Niño is a climate pattern involving changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions across the tropical Pacific. It can influence weather patterns across the United States, including California.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, “El Niño is strengthening,” with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere in fall and winter 2026-27.

The center said there is a chance of a historic-strength El Niño during October through December, meaning it could exceed the power of previous El Niño events dating to 1950.

“With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed,” the Climate Prediction Center said.

On Sept. 21, California Gov. Gavin Newsom proclaimed a state of emergency to prepare for the potentially historic El Niño season. The proclamation directs state agencies to stage flood-fighting supplies, prepare infrastructure and help communities reduce risks from flooding, landslides and coastal hazards.

“El Niño is starting to take hold,” Macaday said. “What we’re seeing is warmer air really setting into November.”

That warmer pattern could delay the arrival of snow, particularly at lower elevations.

Macaday said November is currently expected to be relatively dry and warm.

Despite the arrival fall, temperatures are forecast to remain above normal across much of California through the end of the year from October through December, according to the Climate Prediction Center’s three-month forecast, published on Sept. 17.

The forecast also indicates above-normal precipitation in Southern California, while much of the rest of the state has “equal chances” of seeing precipitation above or below average.

“Normal” is based on the average of all temperatures from 1991 to 2020.

How much could California’s first snowfall be delayed?

Macaday expects the first snowfall to arrive later than average in many parts of California this season.

“I would expect the first snow to be delayed from average by maybe two to six weeks,” he said.

“If you’re at lower elevations, you might see snowfall later than usual,” Macaday added. “If you typically see snow in your area in November, you might not see snow until December.”

The delay could become more noticeable at lower elevations.

Macaday said measurable snow could arrive roughly a week later than average at some elevations, while communities at elevations between about 1,500 and 2,500 feet could see delays of two weeks or more.

“Some spots on the lower end may not see any snow at all, but that will not be even spread,” Macaday said.

In other words, a wetter winter does not necessarily mean more snow everywhere.

Warmer temperatures associated with El Niño can mean more precipitation falls as rain rather than snow at lower elevations, while colder, higher elevations remain more likely to see accumulating snow.

How long will California’s snow season last?

Although the first snow could arrive later than usual, Macaday said he expects the Sierra Nevada to have an active snowy season from December through March.

At higher elevations, snow can continue into late spring.

For example, Tioga Pass, the continuation of Highway 120 through Yosemite National Park, typically closes for the winter in November and doesn’t reopen until late May because of snow and hazardous driving conditions.

“There will be times when it doesn’t snow for a few weeks,” Macaday said. “But over the course of a few months, I expect the Sierra to see more snow than average.”

That could mean more snow days in the mountains and more rain at lower elevations, including California’s Central Valley, than residents typically see during the winter.

This story was originally published September 29, 2026 at 5:00 AM.