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The Jets have to stop trying to run the ball down the throat of their opponents. Because the statistics underpinning their offense performance so far this season show that they can, but they can’t hide the failure of their strategy.
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That’s according to the analytics website NFelo, which contends that the Jets are calling pass plays about 2% less than expected after accounting for factors like down, distance, score, time, and field position.
Given that the Jets running game has been practically invisible for the last three games, it’s a losing strategy to keep doing a ground and pound as the centerpiece of your offense.
The Jets ground game is 3.4 yards per rush, 30th in the NFL. The team has a pass play percentage of 61%, which is 15th in the league. That’s two points behind the league average 63% that would be expected in the same game situations.
Since every team does better passing than running (every NFL team averages more net yards per pass than yards per rush this season), it makes even less sense for the Jets to stick to the run.
That the Jets should become more of a pass-first team is particularly underlined by the absence of star running back Breece Hall. Although he was largely stifled in every game except the first one of the year, the team kept trying to force feed him in hopes of getting him rolling. That has proven to be a bad strategy. See Jets, 1-3.
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The Jets have proven they can throw the ball down the field. Even with No. 2 receiver Adonai Mitchell sidelined, the Jets hit a 58-yard TD bomb to Isaiah Williams in the Bears game, the lone highlight for their offense. A little more of that and the Jets can loosen things up with the run.
Take the Kansas City Chiefs. They are averaging 7.46 net yards per pass, No. 5 in the league. They also average 5.5 yards per rush. Granted that the Chiefs’ Kenneth Walker III is one of the NFL’s best, but it still illustrates why it’s important to balance things in favor of the pass. The Chiefs are 4-0.
The Jets can do it. Quarterback Geno Smith has hit on 8 of 11 deep passes of more than 20 yards, part of his overall excellence so far this season. That ranks just 19th in the league.
It’s time to unleash Geno Smith, particularly since not doing so has resulted in a 1-3 record. We’ll see if offensive coordinator Frank Reich can dial it up.
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This story was originally published October 8, 2026 at 12:54 PM.