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SAO PAULO, Sept 14 (Reuters) – Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva regained a slim lead over right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a simulated runoff for next month’s election, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed on Monday, though the race remained statistically tied.
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Last week, the BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed Bolsonaro numerically ahead of Lula for the first time since March, helping Brazilian assets rally as the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro is considered more market-friendly.
• If there was a runoff, Lula would receive 47% of voter support compared with 46% for Senator Bolsonaro, the latest poll said.
• A September 8 survey had Bolsonaro leading Lula by 46% to 45%.
• In a first-round scenario, Lula would lead with 42% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro (37%), Augusto Cury (6%), Ronaldo Caiado (5%) and Renan Santos (2%), the poll said.
• The previous first-round survey had Lula at 39%, Bolsonaro at 35% and Cury at 9%.
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• If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff on October 25.
• Nexus surveyed 2,003 people from September 11 to 13. The poll has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
(Reporting by Michael Susin in Barcelona and Gabriel Araujo in Sao Paulo, Editing by Louise Heavens)
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This story was originally published September 14, 2026 at 3:40 AM.