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The World Cup takes no days off until the quarterfinals have been decided, which means we will jump right into the Round of 16, less than 24 hours after the conclusion of the Round of 32.
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Canada and Morocco will begin the second round of the knockout stage in a fascinating match. Canada has advanced this far for the first time in its country’s history, while Morocco is looking to make another deep run after making the semifinals in 2022.
Let’s dive into the odds and my best bet for the match.
Canada vs. Morocco Odds and Total
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
To Advance
- Canada +225
- Morocco -290 (74.36% implied probability)
3-Way Moneyline
- Canada +410
- Morocco -130
- Draw +240
Total
- OVER 2.5 (+130)
- UNDER 2.5 (-160)
Canada vs. Morocco How to Watch
- Date: Saturday, July 4
- Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Houston Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): Fox/Tele/Fox One
- Canada record: 2-1-1
- Morocco record: 3-1-0
Canada vs. Morocco History and Tournament Results
These two countries have met each other four times before. Morocco is 3-1-0 in those matches. The most recent was a group stage match at the 2022 World Cup, which resulted in a 2-1 win for Morocco.
Canada
Canada went 1-1-1 in the group stage with a 6-0 win against Qatar, a 1-1 draw to Bosnia & Herzegovina, and a 2-1 loss to Switzerland. They defeated South Africa 1-0 in the Round of 32.
Morocco
Morocco played to a 1-1 draw against Brazil in its first match of the tournament. They followed that up with a 1-0 win against Scotland, a 4-2 win against Haiti, and a win in penalties against the Netherlands in the Round of 32.
Canada vs. Morocco Best Prop Bet
- Jonathan David Anytime Goal (+360)
In today’s edition of my Best World Cup Goal Scorer Bets Today, I broke down why I’m betting on Jonathan David to score at +360:
I understand that Canada is the underdog to Morocco, and I also get that Jonathan David hasn’t had his best stuff so far this tournament, but I can’t get over the fact that four members of Morocco have better odds to score than David, who is sixth amongst all players in the World Cup in expected goals so far this tournament at 3.05. It’s time for him to score in Canada’s biggest match in men’s soccer history.
Canada vs. Morocco Prediction and Best Bet
Full disclosure: I’m a biased Canadian, but I made the case for betting on Canada to advance in today’s edition of my Best World Cup Bets Today:
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It’s tough to sit here and tell you to bet on Canada, a country that had never recorded a single point at a World Cup until this year, to upset the fourth-place finisher from 2022, Morocco, but that’s what I’m going to do. Believe it or not, Canada left a lot on the table in its first four games. The underlying numbers show they have played much better than the final scores indicate. In fact, they’re currently second in the World Cup in expected goal differential per 60 minutes at +1.58.
Morocco has also been good, but its expected goal differential sits at +0.75 per 60 minutes of play. With that being said, there is more to this sport than “expected goals,” and I’m not going to pretend that Canada should be the favorite, but when we’re talking probability, I think there’s value on Canada to advance at +225 odds.
Pick: Canada to Advance (+225)
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Today’s best reads
- Canada Big Underdog Against Morocco on Kalshi
- Every Nation Qualified for the 2026 World Cup Round of 16
- Every Confirmed Round of 16 Match at the 2026 World Cup
- Jesse Marsch Had a Vision and Now Canada’s World Cup Dream Reaches for the Stars
- Netherlands vs. Morocco Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for World Cup Round of 32
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Canada vs. Morocco Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for World Cup Round of 16.
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This story was originally published July 3, 2026 at 3:00 PM.