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The Premier League season’s final round of fixtures arrive this weekend and the last club to be relegated to the Championship is yet to be decided.
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Tottenham Hotspur’s defeat at Chelsea on Tuesday night ensures the relegation battle rages on, with Spurs needing to fend off West Ham United to secure their Premier League survival and avoid joining Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers in the second tier.
Just one match remains for Tottenham to save their skin at the end of an utterly disastrous campaign and their destiny is in their own hands ahead of Sunday‘s finale. Given their form this season, that means little, and West Ham will still hope to usurp their London rivals yet.
Here’s how the Opta supercomputer predicts the relegation fight will pan out this weekend.
Supercomputer Predicts Premier League Relegation Battle
| Predicted Position | Team | Actual Points | Predicted Points | Relegation Chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17. | Tottenham | 38 | 39.73 | 14.09% |
| 18. | West Ham | 36 | 37.78 | 85.91% |
| 19. | Burnley (R) | 21 | 22.42 | 100% |
| 20. | Wolves (R) | 19 | 20.31 | 100% |
With Burnley and Wolves long gone, just one relegation spot remains. Unfortunately for West Ham, they’re currently sat in it, knowing they not only have to win this weekend, but rely on Spurs losing.
The Irons are two points behind their relegation rivals, but due to Tottenham’s vastly superior goal difference, West Ham know three points will only be enough if Tottenham are beaten.
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The unlikelihood of West Ham winning and Spurs losing is reflected in Opta’s projections. As per the supercomputer, Nuno Espírito Santo’s side have an 85.91% chance of being relegated when they host Leeds United on the final day of the season.
Supercomputer Predicts Final Day Results
| Outcome | Tottenham vs. Everton | West Ham vs. Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| Home Win | 50.4% | 51.5% |
| Draw | 22.8% | 23.8% |
| Away Win | 26.8% | 24.7% |
However, West Ham are certainly not out of the fight. Tottenham host Everton in their final fixture searching for only their third win at home in the Premier League this season. On their own patch, Spurs have won twice, drawn six times and lost a whopping 10 matches. That’s the joint-worst home record in the division, tied with Burnley.
It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that Spurs lose against Everton, even if their visitors are in disappointing form. Tottenham simply can’t be relied upon.
Roberto De Zerbi’s Spurs are a slightly different proposition, however, with just two defeats from six under the Italian. Scraping a draw would be enough for Tottenham.
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This story was originally published May 20, 2026 at 4:20 AM.