By admin 
Xavier Becerra, once considered a long-shot, garnered the affection of California Democrats in the last few months of his gubernatorial campaign, culminating in a dominant win in the June primary.
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Campaign officials offered up factors like Becerra’s decades of experience, working-class roots and calm demeanor to explain the newfound popularity of the candidate, who had previously polled in the single digits but shot up in the polls after the abrupt departure of former Rep. Eric Swalwell following sexual assault allegations.
A new poll by the Institute of Governmental Studies sheds some additional light on the phenomenon. A broad swath of left-leaning voters, from the “somewhat liberal” to progressives, favor the candidate, the poll showed.
That finding is particularly striking given the relative popularity of Tom Steyer, the billionaire candidate running as a populist. Despite his best efforts, and a record $215 million of his own money spent in the race, Steyer was unable to win over progressives, his target audience.
By late May, the poll found, progressives preferred Becerra to Steyer by a margin of 39% to 29%.
Across the general electorate, Steyer had an image problem, the poll showed. By the end of the primary race, 43% of voters reported that they viewed him unfavorably. He was viewed positively by 39% of voters.
By contrast, 44% of voters said they viewed Becerra favorably – a 30% increase from a poll conducted by the same group in March. It’s a dramatic rise for a candidate whose image ratings just a few months earlier were more negative than positive.
Becerra’s positive public image, combined with broad support across the left-leaning base, has helped him establish a comfortable lead over Republican Steve Hilton.
The poll found Becerra was the choice of 52% of the state’s electorate. Hilton trailed behind, with 31% of the state’s voters declaring their support for the candidate endorsed by President Donald Trump.
It’s not much of a surprise, given both the state’s strong Democratic base and Becerra’s performance during the primaries. As of Thursday, he’d captured approximately 28% of counted votes, according to the California Secretary of State’s Office. Republican Hilton was in second place with 26.4% of the vote, and Democrat Tom Steyer crept behind at 21%. The Associated Press projected Tuesday Steyer did not have enough support to catch Hilton and declared Hilton had advanced to November.
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Robust party support will likely give Becerra an advantage, the poll found. Becerra and Hilton were backed at similar rates by voters in their parties – 82% and 84% respectively – but in California, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly two to one.
To win, Hilton would need high Republican turnout, strong support from swing voters and some crossover support from Democrats.
But Becerra also led among Californians that are historically considered persuadable, including residents of Orange County and the Central Valley, as well as moderates and Latinos.
About 17% of California voters have yet to pick a candidate for governor. The undecided group, which also included voters who do not support Becerra or Hilton, is largely made up of moderates who are not members of the two major parties or who have no party affiliation.
If Becerra wins the November general election, he’ll be California’s first Latino governor in more than 150 years. The Sacramento native has deep roots in California Democratic Party politics, beginning with his first run for California Assembly in 1989. He served more than a dozen terms representing parts of Los Angeles in the U.S. House of Representatives. He became California’s first Latino attorney general when he was appointed to the post by former Gov. Jerry Brown in 2017, winning reelection the following year and serving as former President Joe Biden’s Health and Human Services secretary from 2021 to 2024.
Hilton cut his teeth in his native UK working in Conservative Party politics, where he was credited with softening the party’s image on issues like the environment. He eventually rose to become an advisor to former Prime Minister David Cameron. Hilton and his wife, a communications executive in the tech world, moved to California in 2012.
On the campaign trail, Becerra touted his numerous successful lawsuits against President Donald Trump’s first administration, including ones defending the Affordable Care Act and California’s vehicle emission standards.
That’s a stark contrast with Hilton, who was endorsed by Trump back in April.
“Gavin Newscum and the Democrats have done an absolutely horrendous job,” Trump said in a Truth Social post, using his frequent jab at the governor. “People are fleeing, crime is increasing, and Taxes are the highest of any State in the Country, maybe the World. Steve can turn it around, before it is too late, and, as President, I will help him to do so!”
Poll results suggest that the endorsement, combined with the president’s high approval rating among California Republicans, may have propelled Hilton forward in the primary. But in the general election, it’s unlikely to work in his favor. As of late May, 69% of Californians disapproved of the president’s performance. And the majority – 62% — strongly disapproved.
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