By admin 
In Week 5, the No. 19 USC Trojans were able to turn it around in the second half against the Washington Huskies and get a defensive stop in the end to win 25-21. While a win is a win, the narrow escape seems to have affected sportsbooks’ odds for the Trojans next matchup versus Penn State (3-2, 0-2) on Oct. 10.
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Projected Close Battle on the Road
Sportsbooks are giving the slight edge to the Trojans. Bet365 and BetMGM currently have USC moneyline at -115, +105 for Penn State while DraftKings has Trojans moneyline at -120 and +100 for the Nittany Lions. FanDuel has it slighter closer with -111 for USC, -108 for Penn State. Caesars and Fanatics Sportsbook have yet to post their odds.
Prediction markets are slightly favoring Southern Cal as well. 53-percent of Kalshi traders are in for a USC victory while 47 percent are riding with Penn State. On Polymarket, 52-percent of traders are with USC, 48-percent with PSU.
ESPN Analytics’ matchup predictor is the outlier, giving the Nittany Lions a 62-percent chance of winning – 38-percent for the Trojans.
Narrative wise, Penn State desperately needs this win as they dropped their past two games, both of which were conference games that Penn State was the favorites in. The 24-20 loss to Wisconsin was a complete collapse as the Nittany Lions led 20-3 early in the game then gave up three-consecutive scoring drives. Their most recent defeat to Northwestern – 34-13 – as they were outperformed in nearly every statistic.
As for USC, they just got their bounce back win, albeit a thriller that was decided in the final seconds of regulation. Now the Trojans will have to prove two things:
- Win a conference game in convincing fashion. Since they entered conference play, USC has been in dog fight with a lesser opponent in Rutgers and handled by the conference’s best in Oregon.
- They need to win on the road. The narrow escape in New Jersey added fuel to the flame that coach Lincoln Riley’s teams can’t perform on the road. The challenge will be even more difficult in the infamous White Out atmosphere.
Over/Under and Points Spread
Sportsbooks have the total points floating above 50. Bet365 and Draftkings currently have the total points at 55.5 with -100 odds for the over/under. FanDuel is set at 53.5 points with -114 odds for the over and -106 for the under. BetMGM has their total points at 54.5, giving -115 odds for the over and -105 for the under. 47-percent of Kalshi traders have stock in over 55.5 points while 48-percent of Polymarket traders are taking the over (55.5 points).
The margin for victory is very slim for the Trojans. BetMGM currently has them as +1 point underdogs with -110 odds to cover. Bet365 (-108), DraftKings (-110) and FanDuel (-104) all have USC as -1.5 point favorites but with different odds to cover. 49-percent of Kalshi and Polymarket traders have USC winning by over 1.5 points.
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Unfortunately for bettors that ride with USC, the Trojans’ four-point victory in Week 5 dropped them to 1-5 versus the spread – 16.7-percent cover rate, -7.3 ATS. Breaking it down more, after a win the Trojans are 1-3 (cover percentage of 25, -4.6 ATS) and on the road they are 0-1 (-14.0 ATS).
Once again, a win against the spread will come down to USC’s defense. Even though they were able to generate pressure and sacks up front against Washington, there is still an issue with tackling and giving up big plays. While the offense scores points, its hard to deny the impact of the rowdy Beaver Stadium. The unit was able to overcome a slow start offensively in Week 5, but its a luxury they may not have on the road.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/usc as Latest Betting Odds Make Statement on USC Trojans’ Road Test vs. Penn State.
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This story was originally published October 4, 2026 at 3:03 PM.