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Most published score predictions for Sunday’s Bengals-Dolphins game reach the same conclusion: Cincinnati should win, but the projected margin varies according to how much faith each analyst places in Miami’s defense and Cincinnati’s injured receivers.
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USA Today’s Adam Kaufman predicts Cincinnati 24, Miami 16. That score reflects a competitive game in which the Dolphins’ defense prevents a blowout but the offense cannot generate enough touchdowns. Kaufman’s reasoning centers on Joe Burrow’s ability to create offense even if Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins is limited.
Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz projects Bengals 26, Dolphins 12. His forecast is more skeptical of Miami’s scoring capacity. The Dolphins average 11.5 points per game and have only four touchdowns through four weeks, making a total near their season average a logical baseline.
Blake Schuster offers the largest score, Bengals 42, Dolphins 20. That projection assumes Burrow and Cincinnati’s passing game overwhelm Miami’s depleted secondary. It also requires the Bengals to improve their finishing after scoring only 17 points despite Burrow’s 428 passing yards against Jacksonville.
The ATS.io model predicts Cincinnati 27, Miami 16. Its projected total of 43 points closely tracks a market total that has generally sat between 42.5 and 44.5. Bleacher Nation does not provide an exact score in its published pick, but it selects Cincinnati to win, Miami to cover a seven-point spread and the game to stay under 43.5.
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The average of the four exact USA Today and ATS.io projections is approximately Cincinnati 30, Miami 16. That figure is inflated by the 42-20 prediction, but it still captures the central expectation: Miami must exceed its normal offensive output or create defensive scores to threaten the favorite.
The market identifies Cincinnati as roughly a touchdown favorite. That fits a matchup between a Bengals team averaging 24.3 points and a Dolphins team allowing 25.3. Miami’s path to a closer finish depends on limiting explosive passes, pressuring Burrow and extending possessions with Ollie Gordon II.
A reasonable synthesis is Bengals 27, Dolphins 17. It respects Cincinnati’s offensive advantage while accounting for its two-game losing streak, weak rushing production and questions around Chase and Higgins. For Miami to reverse that outcome, it probably needs to win the turnover margin and convert red-zone visits into touchdowns rather than settling for field goals.
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This story was originally published October 11, 2026 at 10:17 AM.