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Seven touchdowns in four games is all the Minnesota Vikings have scored, with an offense that still looks broken. The New Orleans Saints have scored 13. One of those teams is unbeaten and the other has lost two straight, which is why the numbers for Sunday’s game point in both directions.
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Kickoff is 1 p.m. ET at the Caesars Superdome, the end of a three-game homestand. Here is the case for each side.
Reasons Saints will beat Vikings in Week 5
Minnesota’s offense is not reaching the end zone
Minnesota’s offense has one touchdown in 32 possessions since Week 2, a 41-yard pass from Kyler Murray to Jordan Addison at Tampa Bay, and did not score one in the 15-10 win over Miami. The Vikings’ point totals over the past three weeks are nine, 23 and 15. They rank 31st in total offense and 32nd in passing, the kind of opponent a Saints defense allowing 32 points per game needs to see. The injury report adds uncertainty for Minnesota: receivers Justin Jefferson (ankle) and Jordan Addison (hamstring) are both listed as questionable, and left tackle Christian Darrisaw is out with a concussion.
Tyler Shough has handled the blitz
Minnesota blitzes around 70 percent of the time, according to the Saints’ website, and Shough’s numbers against extra rushers have held up: 31-of-48 for 275 yards with five touchdown passes and one interception. He has a 77.9 season grade from PFF through Week 4, and the Saints rank fourth in passing offense at 278.5 yards per game with Chris Olave leading the NFL in targets per game. That has come with little help from a running game ranked 27th, where Travis Etienne’s slow start was followed by a hamstring injury that put him on injured reserve.
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Chase Young’s side of the line favors the Saints
Young has 3.5 sacks. He also has a 90.1 pass-rush grade through Week 4 and 13 of the Saints’ 57 pressures, according to PFF. He lines up at right edge on 95 percent of his snaps, per the Vikings’ website, which puts him across from the left tackle. Ryan Van Demark replaced Darrisaw there against Miami, and Murray has been sacked seven times in three games.
Reasons Vikings will beat Saints
The turnover gap between the teams is 10
New Orleans is minus-5 in turnover margin and Minnesota is plus-5. The Vikings are 39-4 under Kevin O’Connell when they win or tie the turnover battle, and their defense has forced 14 turnovers in its past seven games, dating to last season. Shough has three interceptions and five fumbles, and turnovers kept New Orleans stuck through September. “We start with turnovers. We start with shooting ourselves in the foot,” tight end Juwan Johnson said after Monday’s loss.
The Saints’ run defense is thin and Minnesota will test it
The Saints allow 147.8 rushing yards per game, 30th in the league, and 5.1 per carry. Linebackers Kaden Elliss and Anfernee Jennings are out. Aaron Jones carried 20 times for 94 yards against Miami, when the Vikings held the ball for 39:11. Detroit and Atlanta produced 370 of the 591 rushing yards the Saints have allowed, and Atlanta’s 205 came six days ago. “I think on a lot of the plays that didn’t go right (Monday) night, you’ll see guys just kind of trying to force the issue,” defensive coordinator Brandon Staley said later in the week.
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More on the New Orleans Saints
- Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints NFL Prediction, Picks & Odds for Week 5
- Chris Olave vs. Vikings Week 5: Four Expectations for Saints WR After a Foot Scare
- Justin Jefferson’s Ankle and a Stalled Offense: 7 Things Saints Should Know About the Vikings
- Drew Brees’ Ring of Honor Day Gives Saints Fans a Lump in the Throat and a Knot in the Stomach
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This story was originally published October 11, 2026 at 6:00 AM.