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Thursday night at Empower Field at Mile High gives the Denver Broncos a short week and a national audience. Sean Payton’s first game back calling plays produced 224 yards and a win over the winless Los Angeles Chargers.
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The Seattle Seahawks won’t be as forgiving. Seattle is favored by 2.5 points.
Truth: Third down is hurting Denver on both sides of the ball
The Broncos have converted 22 of 65 third downs, a 33.8% rate that ranks 27th in the NFL. The defense has been just as bad at getting off the field, allowing 33 conversions on 73 tries. That 45.2% rate ranks 26th.
Seattle’s defense allows a 29.4% conversion rate, third-best in the league. There is an opening on the other side, though. The Seahawks’ offense has converted 17 of 57 third downs, which ranks 31st, so Denver’s defense has a real chance to win the money downs if it keeps Seattle in long-yardage spots.
Truth: Bo Nix’s yards per attempt keep sliding
Nix is averaging 5.8 yards per attempt. That’s down from 6.4 in 2025 and 6.7 as a rookie in 2024.
He has been under 6 yards per attempt in four of five games, and the 288-yard day against the Jacksonville Jaguars is the only exception. He threw for 123 yards on 27 attempts in Los Angeles, which is why the questions about the quarterback keep growing even after wins.
Seattle has allowed 754 passing yards, the fewest in the NFL. Nix won’t find many easy completions against Mike Macdonald’s defense.
Truth: Denver’s run defense is giving up too much
The Broncos have allowed 726 rushing yards, an average of 145.2 per game and 4.7 per carry. Every opponent has run for at least 95 yards, and the Kansas City Chiefs piled up 220 in Week 1.
The Chargers ran for 155 yards Sunday, and 54 of them came from Justin Herbert. Seattle’s ground game has been ordinary, with Emanuel Wilson at 251 yards on 73 carries, but a defense that can’t stop the run on early downs will keep facing the manageable third downs it has struggled to defend.
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Truth: The pass defense has held up without its top corners
With Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss out in Week 5, Denver held Herbert to 121 yards on 14-of-24 passing. Jahdae Barron has settled in as an every-down corner, and safety Brandon Jones earned an 88.4 grade and didn’t allow a catch on two targets, according to PFF. He also intercepted Herbert with 3:19 left.
Thursday is a bigger test. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 37 catches for 583 yards and seven touchdowns, and Surtain and Talanoa Hufanga were both listed as non-participants on Monday’s estimated practice report.
Lie: The offensive line is why Denver’s offense stalls
Nix has been sacked six times, and four of them came in the opener at Kansas City. He has been sacked twice in the four games since.
Against the Chargers, four of Denver’s five starting linemen posted pass-blocking grades of 78.6 or better, according to PFF. Quinn Meinerz led the group at 88.4, and the right guard has made a case as an early Protector of the Year candidate.
Seattle has 14 sacks, with Byron Murphy II and Leonard Williams at 3.0 apiece. The line has held up its end, and the pressure is on Nix and the passing game to do more with the time they get.
The Broncos host the Seahawks at 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday at Empower Field at Mile High, with the game on Prime Video. Watch Denver’s third-down calls in the first half, because Payton’s offense can’t afford to hand Seattle short fields and extra possessions.
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More on the Denver Broncos
- Sean Payton Says Denver Broncos’ Entire Offensive Operation Must Improve
- Did Sean Payton’s Play-Calling Debut Move the Broncos Up in NFL Power Rankings?
- Stock up, Stock Down in Broncos win over Chargers
- The Broncos Waited Until Pick 66 to Draft, and the Week 5 Returns Show What That Cost Them
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This story was originally published October 14, 2026 at 5:09 AM.