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India’s retail inflation accelerated to 4.38% in June, government data showed on Monday, breaching the central bank’s 4% target for the first time in 16 months and setting the stage for an interest rate hiking cycle.
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COMMENTARY:
SAKSHI GUPTA, PRINCIPAL ECONOMIST, HDFC BANK, GURUGRAM
“Inflation inched up by close to 45 basis points in June to 4.4%, mainly driven by some increase in food and fuel inflation as the impact of a revision in petrol and diesel prices played out. However, lower gold prices pulled down the increase in the headline print.
Read more India’s retail inflation accelerates to 4.38%, raising rate hike expectations
The uncertainty over the West Asia conflict along with an uneven monsoon continues to cast a shadow over the inflation outlook. We continue to estimate inflation to average at 5.2% for FY27, assuming an average oil price of $80 pbl.”
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(Reporting by Anuran Sadhu; Editing by Sonia Cheema)
Copyright Reuters or USA Today Network via Reuters Connect.
This story was originally published July 13, 2026 at 3:48 AM.