By admin 
Yeah, yeah, yeah, Ohio State, Texas, Notre Dame, Alabama, Indiana – they’re all expected to get into the College Football Playoff. But what about some of the other Power Four programs with good teams, great starts, and, most importantly, a favorable enough schedule to get to 10-2 and make a real CFP push?
Here are ten teams that aren’t crazy to dream of getting in if they catch the right breaks. Is it a long shot for these ten? Absolutely, but a few will at least get really, really close.
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Duke Blue Devils
Record: 4-0
Why Duke Has A Chance: It’s been lost in the fog of the season, but this is the defending ACC Champion. If this year’s rules applied to last season, it would’ve had an automatic spot in the College Football Playoff, and James Madison would’ve been out.
Why Duke Won’t Make It: Going to Miami and Wake Forest isn’t easy, and there can’t be a slip on the road at NC State or Virginia, or at home against North Carolina.
Will Duke Make the CFP?: No, it’ll lose three games, but it’ll be a tough out each and every week.
Florida Gators
Record: 3-1
Why Florida Has A Chance: The Gators haven’t been written off after getting roasted by Missouri last week, but they don’t play Alabama, Ole Miss, or LSU. There’s tweaking to do, but if the offense finds its groove again, closing 6-1 over the last seven games isn’t an unreasonable goal.
Why Florida Won’t Make It: The Party against Georgia, and the trip to Texas. The Gators not only have to win at least one of those two, but they also can’t slip in any of the other five games. There isn’t a layup left on the board.
Will Florida Make the CFP?: No, but just the idea that the Gators have a reasonable chance to get close is a massive step forward in Year One under Jon Sumrall.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Record: 4-1
Why Iowa Has A Chance: The Ohio State loss might make it seem like that’s it. Iowa is Iowa, Ohio State is Ohio State, and the Hawkeyes can’t play with the big boys. Okay, fine, but there aren’t any powerhouse teams left on the slate. Iowa misses Indiana, Oregon, and USC, as well as UCLA and Penn State.
Why Iowa Won’t Make It: No, there isn’t a game that’s unwinnable, but there also isn’t a 100% sure-thing win. Going to Minnesota, Northwestern, and Washington will all be challenging, but …
Will Iowa Make the CFP?: Sheepishly … yes? The Hawkeyes will absolutely lose one more game, but Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Purdue come to Iowa City, Illinois isn’t great, and they can go 2-1 against the Gophers, Wildcats, and Huskies.
Kansas State Wildcats
Record: 3-1
Why Kansas State Has A Chance: Rested and ready with a week off after the tough loss at Cincinnati, the offense should get stronger as the season goes on, and, best of all, there’s no Utah, BYU, Texas Tech, or a hot Baylor team to deal with.
Why Kansas State Won’t Make It: This is a good team with a huge upside if both sides are a bit more explosive, but it still has to deal with Arizona, Houston, and Oklahoma State. But …
Will Kansas State Make the CFP?: No, but don’t rule out a good run – those three games just mentioned are all in Manhattan. The bigger overall problem is getting a second Big 12 team in the CFP if K-State doesn’t win the conference title. BYU and Utah got to ten wins and were left out.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Record: 4-1
Why Minnesota Has A Chance: As it turns out, Mississippi State is great. The home loss that made it seem like the Gophers were in big trouble doesn’t seem like a big deal now after winning at Washington and taking down Michigan. There’s no Ohio State, Oregon, or USC on the schedule.
Why Minnesota Won’t Make It: Other than the trip to Indiana, there isn’t a game left that Minnesota can’t win, but it still has to go to Penn State and Wisconsin, and the margin for error – because of the trip to Bloomington – will be zero.
Will Minnesota Make the CFP?: No, but this could get interesting if the Gophers handle a suddenly dangerous Purdue team on the road and take the Floyd of Rosedale Trophy away from Iowa before dealing with Indiana.
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Pitt Panthers
Record: 5-0
Why Pitt Has A Chance: The win over Virginia Tech last week might have been the one big moment that shows just how special this season might be. Already at 5-0, if Pitt can close on a 5-2 run, it’ll at least be in the ACC Championship mix, if not in the at-large discussion.
Why Pitt Won’t Make It: At Miami is the one big hangup, and going to Louisville won’t be a breeze. The rest of the schedule, though, is more than manageable, but the Panthers have to get over the loss of …
Will Pitt Make the CFP?: Mason Heintschel. The star quarterback is out for the year with a knee injury, but Pitt is one of those quirky teams that occasionally finds ways to surprise. Last year, it went on a five-game midseason winning streak before losing to Notre Dame, and it won the ACC title in 2021. So, no on the at-large CFP trip, but yeah, it might get a shot in the ACC Championship.
SMU Mustangs
Record: 4-1
Why SMU Has A Chance: Three words: schedule, schedule, schedule. The Mustangs got into the College Football Playoff two years ago by going 11-1 and losing a tight battle in the ACC Championship against Clemson. This year, they’re in the midst of an insane run of six home games in seven dates, with the one road trip to Syracuse.
Why SMU Won’t Make It: November 21st at Notre Dame. Payment is due for this wonderful stretch of home games with a trip to South Bend, likely meaning there can’t be another loss anywhere else the rest of the way.
Will SMU Make the CFP?: No, but this could be close. As long as the likely loss to the Irish isn’t an ugly blowout, with no Miami or Clemson to face, and with Virginia Tech and Wake Forest both home games, there’s a great chance SMU gets to 10-2 and plays in the ACC Championship.
UCLA Bruins
Record: 4-0
Why UCLA Has A Chance: The running game is one of the most effective in America, head coach Bob Chesney took James Madison to the College Football Playoff last year, and now the Bruins are rested and ready to deal with a trip to Oregon. Indiana, Ohio State, Northwestern, and Penn State are all missing from the schedule.
Why UCLA Won’t Make It: The defense isn’t good enough, and the 4-0 start came against four teams that likely won’t go to a bowl game. At Oregon, Wisconsin, at Minnesota, at Michigan, USC – there are at least three losses in there.
Will UCLA Make the CFP?: We’ve been pretty mild with the calls here, so let’s throw it out there. UCLA will lose two of the three against Oregon, Minnesota, and Michigan, but it’ll beat everyone else before facing USC in the regular season finale. If the Bruins win that, they’ll be 10-2 and in.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Record: 4-1
Why Wake Forest Has A Chance: The team that was good enough to pull off a win at Purdue, give Miami its best game of the year so far, and win at Louisville has a schedule loaded with possible wins. Going to Georgia Tech and Cal aren’t as imposing as they appeared to be before the season, and going to NC State isn’t some massive road trip.
Why Wake Forest Won’t Make It: There’s only so much credit it’ll receive for playing Miami tough. The issue will be the body blows in the schedule. The Demon Deacons are good enough to beat everyone left on the slate, but there are four road games in six dates,one of those is the trip to Berkeley, and one is a nasty game at SMU.
Will Wake Forest Make the CFP?: It’s not out of the question, but it might come down to the road game at SMU. Wake Forest is just that well-coached and solid overall to keep moving on in a one-game-at-a-time way, but even at 10-2, it still almost certainly won’t get in.
Wisconsin Badgers
Record: 4-1
Why Wisconsin Has A Chance: If you had mentioned Wisconsin and the College Football Playoff in the same sentence a few weeks ago, you’d be accused of enjoying Madison a bit too much. Losing to Notre Dame this year is acceptable. The comeback win over Penn State appears to be a spark for the turnaround, and there’s no Indiana, Ohio State, or Oregon on the schedule.
Why Wisconsin Won’t Make It: The Badgers get two weeks to prepare, but going to UCLA is now a problem, and making the trip to Iowa after facing USC won’t be easy. And remember, to have a realistic shot of getting into the CFP, Wisconsin can afford just one more loss.
Will Wisconsin Make the CFP?: Sort of like the qualifiers we had for UCLA and Wake Forest, here’s the call. If the Badgers split the road games at UCLA and Iowa, we’ll give them the tough win over USC, a layup against both Rutgers and Maryland, and a hard-fought win over Purdue. If that happens, the showdown against Minnesota for the Paul Bunyan Axe will be for 10-2.
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This story was originally published October 5, 2026 at 2:17 AM.