Analyzing the Crowded AL Playoff Chase: Contender Odds, Strengths, Weaknesses

The uninspiring yet riveting American League playoff race is coming down to the wire. With little more than a week left in the regular season, six teams are battling for the final three playoff spots.

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The Rays and Yankees have already punched their tickets to the postseason, and the Red Sox aren’t far behind. The other two divisional races and the final wild card spot remain up for grabs.

The Guardians and White Sox are locked in a battle atop the AL Central, while the Rangers and Astros are trying to outlast one another for the AL West title. All four teams are also fighting for the final wild-card spot with the charging Blue Jays and Orioles. All six teams are separated by less than three games.

Here’s a look at where those teams stand heading into the penultimate weekend of the season and why they could make or miss the playoffs.

Chicago White Sox

FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 68.7%

Offense ranks: 714 runs (7th), 196 home runs (6th), .721 OPS (11th), 103 wRC+ (7th)

Pitching ranks: 4.61 rotation ERA (26th), 3.65 bullpen ERA (7th), 8.31 K/9 (17th), 3.6 BB/9 (20th)

The White Sox (78–75) hold the AL Central lead via tiebreaker over the Guardians, with both teams a game above the Astros and Rangers (77–76) in the race for the third wild card. That incredibly has them in position for the No. 2 seed a year after they lost 102 games. While Cleveland’s offense has let it down, Chicago has the opposite problem with a shaky rotation. The Sox will enter the weekend having won just four of their last 11 games, but they finish up the season with series against the Tigers (home), Royals (away) and Rockies (home), which is about the softest schedule you could ask for.

Reason to believe: The offense is still consistent. The team’s cornerstone for much of the season, the White Sox rank 10th in wRC+ (102) since the start of August. Center fielder Tristan Peters has exploded in that time, slashing .285/.385/.528 with six home runs and a 158 wRC+. Third baseman Miguel Vargas has continued his excellent season, and second baseman Chase Meidroth has quietly been the team’s second-most valuable position player by bWAR (3.9).

Reason to doubt: I could go with the starting rotation here, which doesn’t really have anyone you’d implicitly trust in a playoff game, but the real reason they’d fall short is the stars that carried them earlier in the year falling apart. Munetaka Murakami was a big part of Chicago’s push to first place earlier this season, but since the beginning of August he has fallen apart. Ditto for Colson Montgomery. Munetaka is slashing .130/280/.299 with seven home runs and a 66 wRC+ in his last 43 games entering Thursday, while Montgomery is at .168/.269/.329 and a wRC+ of 70. The lineup has remained productive without them, but both guys need to get back on track quickly.

Cleveland Guardians

FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 80.2%

Offense ranks: 631 runs (27th), 147 home runs (T-28th), .689 OPS (29th), 95 wRC+ (25th)

Pitching ranks: 3.90 rotation ERA (8th), 3.65 bullpen ERA (6th), 9.61 K/9 (3rd), 3.35 BB/9 (12th)

The Guardians are currently 78–75, just like the White Sox, in a tie for the AL Central lead but would enter as the third wild card via tiebreaker if the season was over. Cleveland has struggled to stay around .500 for most of the year because of an underperforming offense, though things have been trending in the right direction. They took two of three from Chicago earlier this week and are 17–9 dating back to Aug. 20-but their schedule has been incredibly soft during that span, not featuring a single team with a winning record.

Reason to believe: The Guardians have one of MLB’s best pitching staffs. Gavin Williams and Parker Messick give the team a legitimate one-two punch atop their starting rotation. Williams is 13–8 with a 3.78 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 235 strikeouts in 178 innings, while Messick is 12–9 with a 2.57 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 189 Ks in 178 1/3 innings. Closer Cade Smith leads an excellent bullpen and has locked down 37 saves in 42 chances, boasting a 2.09 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP.

Reason to doubt: Cleveland’s offense has been downright terrible this season. José Ramírez has endured the worst campaign of his career, and they rank in the bottom five of most offensive categories. They are ninth in wRC+ (103) since the beginning of August, which is encouraging, but if that doesn’t keep improving, it’s hard to have much confidence here. It’s also worth noting that this season, the Guardians are 24–37 against teams at .500 or better.

Houston Astros

FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 67.2%

Offense ranks: 681 runs (16th), 205 home runs (3rd), .725 OPS (9th), 102 wRC+ (8th)

Pitching ranks: 4.91 rotation ERA (27th), 4.07 bullpen ERA (17th), 8.85 K/9 (9th), 4.1 BB/9 (29th)

Somehow, despite all of their failings, the Astros are still hanging on to first place in the AL West. They’re 77–76, have dropped seven of their last 11, and carry a -50 run differential for the season. But someone has to win this putrid division, right? Outside of Yordan Alvarez and Josh Hader, Houston doesn’t have much to hang its hat on this season.

Reason to believe: Their competition is terrible. Houston is lucky enough to have a weak schedule to finish the season, as they finish up with two at Seattle and four at the A’s. Álvarez and Isaac Paredes have helped them have a decent offense, and Hader at least can finish games, but there isn’t a lot to love here. They just happen to be in a division that an average-at-best team will win.

Reason to doubt: Where to start? The rotation has been one of baseball’s worst this season, with Hunter Brown and Peter Lambert being the lone saving graces yet still nothing to write home about. And outside of Álvarez, no one on the team carries an OPS over .800. This just isn’t a good team, and no one would be shocked if it fell apart over the next week.

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Texas Rangers

FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 50.1%

Offense ranks: 638 runs (25th), 174 home runs (17th), .718 OPS (16th), 104 wRC+ (6th)

Pitching ranks: 4.22 rotation ERA (15th), 4.45 bullpen ERA (22nd), 8.62 K/9 (13th), 3.12 BB/9 (9th)

The Rangers squandered a golden opportunity Thursday to climb back above .500 into a tie with Houston atop the AL West on a five-game winning streak, but blew a 3–0 lead over the Red Sox in the final innings in what could prove to be a pivotal 4–3 loss. That leaves them a game behind the Astros and two games behind the Guardians in the wild-card race. It’s been a weird season in Arlington: Texas ranks sixth league-wide in wRC+ (104), but is 25th in runs scored (638). The rotation has looked better down the stretch, but is still inconsistent for a unit featuring veterans Jacob deGrom and MacKenzie Gore-Texas had to rely on a bullpen game in Thursday’s loss.

Reason to believe: They just got a big boost. Third baseman Josh Jung and pitcher Nathan Eovaldi were both activated on Sept. 12. Eovaldi is being used out of the bullpen to start, but getting his arm back in any capacity should be a big lift.

Reason to doubt: The Rangers have yet to convert their underlying offensive performance into many runs, and the pitching staff hasn’t been good enough to compensate. The fact that the Astros own the tiebreaker in the AL West hurts, as does the fact that they close the season on the road against the Twins. Texas is 33–44 away from home on the season.

Toronto Blue Jays

FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 27.4%

Offense ranks: 619 runs (29th), 148 home runs (27th), .696 OPS (27th), 95 wRC+ (22nd)

Pitching ranks: 4.14 rotation ERA (12th), 3.70 bullpen ERA (8th), 8.78 K/9 (10th), 3.71 BB/9 (24th)

The Blue Jays were 10 games under .500 on July 28; now they’re 76–77 and two games out of the final wild card spot. They played themselves back into contention by ripping off consecutive series wins over the Cardinals, Astros, Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays. They also won a series over the Guardians earlier this month and now hold a tiebreaker over them. The team’s offense has been brutal all season, with virtually every key contributor from last season’s pennant-winning team underperforming, but the Dylan Cease-led pitching staff has kept Toronto alive.

Reason to believe: They’ve been playing well and have a chance to control their own fate. Trey Yesavage is on the mend from knee surgery and is expected to be back in the team’s rotation sometime next week. They also have a weak schedule coming up, as they travel for three-game series at Texas and Baltimore, then finish at home against the Reds. It’s a favorable stretch for a team chasing a playoff spot.

Reason to doubt: The Blue Jays have left themselves little room for a stumble. Toronto essentially needs to win each of its final three series. Additionally, the rotation is a mess. Jameson Taillon is done for the season, and Shane Bieber isn’t expected back in the regular season. Yesavage hasn’t been activated yet.

Baltimore Orioles

Fangraphs Playoff Odds: 5.9%

Offense ranks: 688 runs (13th), 188 home runs (10th), .711 OPS (22nd), 102 wRC+ (11th)

Pitching ranks: 4.36 rotation ERA (20th), 3.84 bullpen ERA (10th), 8.11 K/9 (22nd), 3.36 BB/9 (13th)

The Orioles are 2 1/2 games back of the final wild card spot with nine games to play. They have left themselves no room for error. Luckily, they have tiebreakers over the White Sox and Astros and face the Blue Jays in three games early next week.

Reason to believe: They are finally winning. The Orioles just swept the Mets and have won six of their last nine. They can pass Toronto and hold two key tiebreakers. Stranger things have happened. Also, Pete Alonso has been the AL’s best qualified hitter by wRC+ (163) in the second half, with a robust .292/.386/.552 slash line. Coby Mayo (.269/.328/.563, 147 wRC+) hasn’t been too far behind.

Reason to doubt: The pitching staff is full of decent arms but no dominant ones that can shut down opposing offenses. Baltimore also finishes with a brutal schedule. Aside from that three-game stint against the Blue Jays, the Orioles host the Brewers for three this weekend, then finish with three at Yankee Stadium. For a team that can’t afford to lose games, that’s a rough assignment.

This article was originally published on www.si.com as Analyzing the Crowded AL Playoff Chase: Contender Odds, Strengths, Weaknesses.

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This story was originally published September 18, 2026 at 4:15 AM.