By admin 
California election officials are still counting ballots across the state, with the Associated Press estimating 58% ballots counted as of 11 a.m. But there are some clear trends in a turbulent California primary for governor.
Read more California Primary 2026: How was voter turnout going after a sluggish start?
The results so far show Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton advancing to the general election. Democrat Tom Steyer is down but not out.
Here’s what you need to know:
Steyer could still win, but his path is getting harder
Steyer, a billionaire progressive activist, has won about 20% of the vote so far. To stay in the race, he needs the remaining votes to lean heavily Democratic — a possibility, given the party’s supporters were slower to return ballots — and for those remaining votes to break heavily in his direction.
“He has to count not just on that blue wave hitting, but that he benefits from it much more than Becerra or any other Democrat,” said Dan Schnur, a political science professor at UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies.
The Steyer campaign tried to set expectations about a late surge in support in a pre-election memo Monday. In the memo, Steyer spokesperson Anthony York said the campaign expected Election Day voters to lean younger and more independent, “groups with which Tom performs well.”
Becerra’s win would mark new direction — and return to status quo
For years, Democratic politics in California has been dominated by Bay Area Democrats. Think Gov. Gavin Newsom, former Vice President Kamala Harris and Speaker Emeritus Nancy Pelosi. While Steyer ran a more progressive and outsider campaign than those politicians, he did well in places like San Francisco, Marin County and Santa Barbara County, where voters skew white, wealthy and well-educated
Becerra is from Sacramento, represented Los Angeles in Congress and stressed his working class roots — his parents’ immigration from Mexico, his father’s career as a union construction worker and his contrast with Steyer’s wealth. Becerra is so far the top vote-getter in some of the most diverse regions of the state, including Los Angeles County and the East and South Bay.
To Mike Madrid, a Republican consultant who has studied Latino voters, Becerra’s campaign represents a shift in Democratic politics away from the most progressive parts of the state and toward a more working class orientation.
“This is the coalition and the party that has been left out of California’s politics for a generation,” he said.
In another sense, however, Becerra represents the status quo. Unlike Steyer or candidates like San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, Becerra hasn’t articulated major policy departures from Newsom. He’s kept many of his campaign promises broad and vague. In that sense, the campaign reminds Schnur of the 2020 presidential race, when Democrats united behind Joe Biden.
Schnur characterized former Rep. Eric Swalwell’s sexual misconduct scandal, and abrupt departure from the race in April, as a “near-death experience for many Democrats.” Becerra’s even-keeled mien and familiarity to voters — including stints as assemblymember, U.S. representative, attorney general and U.S. secretary of health and human services — helped lift his campaign after the Swalwell scandal.
Becerra’s campaign was boosted by a range of business interests and establishment Democratic consultants like Bearstar Strategies, the firm that previously worked with Newsom and Harris.
“If you wanted things to stay exactly how they are, the status quo option was Becerra, and the status quo won,” Schnur said.
Read more CA High-Speed Rail reveals private group that could help build past Central Valley
If Hilton wins, he faces a tough general election fight
Hilton, a former Fox News host, landed some sharp blows in debates, and is aiming his campaign at the majority of Californians whom polls show say the state is going in the wrong direction.
But Hilton’s party affiliation and endorsement by President Donald Trump present two major obstacles in California, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans almost two-to-one. Just 30% of likely California voters approve of Trump’s job performance, according to a recent Public Policy Institute of California poll.
“I like Steve because he is from the thinking wing of the Republican Party, which is a pretty narrow lane,” said Madrid, a never-Trump Republican. “But he’s also a Trumper. And that’s just a non-starter.”
Mahan and Porter struggled to break through
Mahan and former Rep. Katie Porter both conceded Tuesday night. Porter led in some early polls of the race last year. But she struggled to maintain the momentum in the face of more competition from Steyer, who entered the race in November, and questions about her temperament.
Madrid said Porter did well with a key Democratic constituency — white women over the age of 40 — but struggled to grow her campaign beyond that group. Schnur noted Steyer’s heavy spending and progressive politics may have eaten into Porter’s support. Other observers have attributed her struggles to sexism.
Porter also may have muddied the waters with progressive supporters by wavering on positions like minimum wage increases, overtime for farmworkers and her support for single-payer health insurance, according to Lorena Gonzalez, president of the California Federation of Labor Unions.
Mahan ran an anti-establishment campaign from the center after entering the race in late January, arguing Democrats needed to take on unions, slash red tape and emphasize accountability in state spending. While tech funds poured in to support his campaign, it failed to meaningfully boost him to the top tier of candidates; Mahan has so far failed to even win his base in San Jose.
Gonzalez described defeating Mahan as the Federation’s top priority and said his defeat, despite what she acknowledged to be his political acumen, signalled voters distrust of Silicon Valley.
“I think the real problem is that he is seen and associated with Silicon Valley and the big tech billionaires that funded his campaign,” Gonzalez.
Y Combinator CEO Garry Tan, a key Mahan backer, described the tech world’s support for Mahan’s unsuccessful campaign as “our education” in an interview with POLITICO.
Madrid said Mahan’s campaign reminded him of the one he’d run for former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa in 2018 against Newsom. In both cases, the moderate messages might have gotten a broader audience if Democrats weren’t preoccupied with combating a perceived larger threat in Trump, Madrid said.
“The way I’d characterize it is, nobody wants to be told the foundation of their house has a crack in it while it’s on fire,” Madrid said. “Put out the fire first and then we’ll get to what else is wrong.”
Read more Alcohol-free bar suffers major buzzkill since crackdown on one key ingredient
This story was originally published June 3, 2026 at 11:40 AM.