Valadao leads, Villegas edges ahead of Bains in hotly contested 22nd District

After months of infighting among Democrats, college professor Randy Villegas emerged Tuesday night with a slim lead over Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains in the battle to take on Republican Rep. David Valadao in a key Central Valley congressional district.

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As of 9:10 p.m. Tuesday, Villegas led Bains with roughly 29.8% of the vote, while Bains had captured about 26.4%.

Valadao received 43.8% of the vote and is all but certain to advance to the November general election in California’s 22nd Congressional District, one of the nation’s most closely watched battleground seats. He has won the district in six of the past seven elections.

Bains and Villegas, a professor at the College of the Sequoias in Visalia, are hoping Democrats will fare better this year following voter-approved redistricting under Proposition 50.

The new map slightly increased the district’s Democratic registration advantage while shifting its boundaries northward to include communities such as Huron, Riverdale, Caruthers, Kerman and San Joaquin. The district still has portions of Tulare, Porterville, Wasco and Bakersfield. Hanford, Valadao’s hometown, now accounts for a smaller share of the district.

Nonpartisan election analysts at Inside Elections continue to rate the seat as “tilt Republican.”

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For months, supporters of Bains and Villegas have sparred over which Democrat is best positioned to defeat Valadao.

Bains, backed by Democratic Party leaders and major labor organizations, is a moderate Democrat who has sometimes broken with her party on Assembly votes. Villegas has embraced progressive policy positions, like Medicare for all and universal childcare, while building more grassroots support. The two candidates have raised similar amounts of money.

Neither Bains nor Villegas secured enough votes for the state party’s endorsement earlier this year.

Last month, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — the party’s House campaign and fundraising arm — signaled its support for Bains. The move drew criticism from progressive Democrats, who argued the committee was improperly tipping the scales in a contested primary.

Central Valley political consultants told The Sacramento Bee that the endorsement likely reflected national Democrats’ belief that Bains is the stronger general election candidate and her inability to pull away from Villegas, a political newcomer. A powerful political action committee aligned with House Republicans later released its own mailers that appear to show the GOP prefers to face Villegas in November.

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