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A strengthening Hurricane Isaias is expected to make landfall as a “high-end Category 2” storm tonight or Saturday morning, according to the latest report from the National Hurricane Center.
At 7:20 a.m., the National Hurricane Center announced Isaias is carrying maximum sustained winds of 120 mph Friday morning, making the storm a major Category 3 hurricane. While the forecast indicates there will “probably” weaken before landfall, Isaias is expected to make landfall with winds of about 100 mph.
While warnings and watches remain for all of South Mississippi, the hurricane center’s forecast track continues to call for a landfall east of Pensacola.
In the 7 a.m. report, Isaias was located 170 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, and was moving north-northeast at 15 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure has fallen to 958 mb.
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When is landfall expected?
The NHC says Isaias is expected to turn northward and accelerate later Friday due to increasing flow between an upper trough near the northwestern Gulf Coast and a subtropical ridge extending across the western Atlantic. Landfall is expected to occur within the hurricane warning area Friday night or early Saturday.
How strong will Isaias be?
Isaias could continue to intensify for the next 12 hours or so while it moves over very warm and deep water. However, the forecast says a large increase in shear is anticipated before landfall, which will probably cause some weakening to occur. It would only take about a 6-hour delay in the onset of the shear, though, to bring a stronger hurricane than expected onshore. The new forecast explicitly calls for a high-end category 2 intensity (96-110 mph) at landfall. Regardless of its exact wind speed at landfall, Isaias will be a dangerous hurricane with significant storm surge, damaging winds, and flooding rains. The wind field is also predicted to grow, and some of Isaias’ effects will extend well away from the center. After landfall, gusty winds are expected to reach well inland over portions of the southeastern United States.
Current warnings
- A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwanee River in Florida.
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Ocean Springs to the Gulf County in Florida.
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, and Gulf County to the Aucilla River in Florida.
What current warnings mean
- A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
- A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
- A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Watch, advisory, warning: What’s the difference?
- A watch is issued when the risk of a hazardous weather or hydrologic event has increased significantly, but its occurrence, location or timing is still uncertain. It is intended to provide enough lead time so those who need to set their plans in motion can do so. A watch means that hazardous weather is possible. People should have a plan of action in case a storm threatens and they should listen for later information and possible warnings especially when planning travel or outdoor activities.
- An advisory is issued when a hazardous weather or hydrologic event is occurring, imminent or likely. Advisories are for less serious conditions than warnings, that cause significant inconvenience and if caution is not exercised, could lead to situations that may threaten life or property.
- A warning is issued when a hazardous weather or hydrologic event is occurring, imminent or likely. A warning means weather conditions pose a threat to life or property. People in the path of the storm need to take protective action.
‘Key messages’ from National Hurricane Center
The National Hurricane Center identified these “key messages” in its 4 a.m. advisory Friday:
- A life-threatening storm surge is expected from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Suwannee, Florida. Residents in the warning area should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if told to do so.
- Damaging hurricane force-winds are expected over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should prepare for the possibility of long-duration power outages.
- Damaging wind gusts are possible over much of central and northern Alabama, extreme eastern Mississippi, and portions of western and northern Georgia, especially in areas of higher terrain. Additional Tropical Storm and High Wind Watches and Warnings may be required for portions of that area later today. Residents should secure loose outdoor items, avoid driving high-profile vehicles, and prepare for power outages.
- Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast and much of the Southeast through the weekend. Considerable flash and urban flooding, along with significant river flooding, will be possible.
This story was originally published October 9, 2026 at 5:07 AM with the headline “Latest updates: Hurricane Isaias upgraded to Cat 3 strength, targeting Pensacola.”
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