By admin 
Michael Busch is walking at a 15.2 percent clip, up from 9.5 percent a year ago and the 96th percentile in baseball, while his bat speed has sat in the 7th percentile for most of the season. That decline showed up as early as April, not after some midseason collapse, and May’s power spike proved to be the outlier once June arrived. Busch is a stronger on-base asset right now than a power one, and the trade was made before the season got interesting.
Read more With red card suspension removed, Folarin Balogun to play for U.S. vs. Belgium
Fifteen-point-two percent. That is where Michael Busch’s walk rate sits through the Cardinals series, the fourth-highest mark in the majors and a jump of nearly six points from the 9.5 percent he posted during his 34-homer 2025 season. Every outlet on the Cubs beat has written some version of this story by now, and every one of them is correct about it. None of them have written the other half.
Busch’s bat speed is 68.4 mph this season, seventh percentile in baseball. His bat speed a year ago, during the best season of his career, was 69.6 mph, itself nothing special. He has managed to get slower with the bat while becoming more disciplined with it, which is either an approach change or a magic trick, and magic tricks do not show up on Baseball Savant.
Squared-Up rate says he is still doing the hard part correctly. Busch is squaring up 28.4 percent of his swings, 77th percentile in the league, essentially the same rate as a year ago. He is finding the sweet spot of the bat about as often as he always has. He just cannot turn that contact into the same exit velocity, which is why a swing that used to produce a double now produces a loud groundout to short.
Here is the detail that got lost in the walk rate coverage. This is not a story about a June collapse. Reports on Busch’s bat speed problem go back to his first two weeks of the season, when he was hitting .176 with a bat speed barely above 67 mph, third percentile in the league. The walk rate had not shown up yet. Whatever is happening with his swing started before Opening Day weather warmed up, not after some great May convinced everybody he was fixed.
May did look like a fix. Barrel rate jumped to 16.0 percent, hard-hit rate to 53.3 percent, and his expected wOBA hit .421, an All-Star pace crammed into a month. Then June happened. Barrel rate fell back to 9.1 percent. Hard-hit rate dropped to 39.4 percent. The walk rate barely moved the entire time, running 19.2 percent in May and 16.9 percent in June. The June version of Michael Busch, for better or for worse, is probably the most accurate. Treat him accordingly.
The best explanation on record, and it has been on record since April, is that Busch shortened his swing. A shorter swing costs bat speed almost by definition. It also buys time, and time is what turns a take on a borderline pitch into a walk instead of a swing at a pitcher’s pitch. Nobody on the Cubs beat has reported an injury this season. No IL stint, no day-to-day tag, nothing on the transaction log. One outlet floated the possibility in April as an unconfirmed guess before noting the shortened swing as the more likely explanation in the same breath. Treat this as a swing decision until somebody with a notepad says otherwise.
None of this is happening in a vacuum. The Cubs lead all of baseball in walks as a team, and Chicago beat writers have described the whole lineup trading home run swings for free passes this season. Busch is not an outlier on his own roster so much as the most extreme version of a team-wide shift, which is worth knowing before anyone credits him alone for a change that might be organizational.
Read more U.S. Fans Rooting For Mexico Over England Tonight
The fantasy verdict follows the swing, not the highlight reel. Busch is a stronger on-base asset than a power one right now, which plays well in points and OBP formats and less well in standard roto categories built around slugging. His rolling expected wOBA sat at .383 in mid-June and has drifted to .339 as of July 3, which is the wrong direction for anyone hoping the last two weeks of loud contact represent a trend instead of a heater. Buy the average and the on-base percentage. Do not buy the power coming back until the bat speed does, and do not let one hot two-week stretch talk you out of that discipline. Busch earned his walk rate. He has not yet earned his old slugging percentage back.
Questions About Michael Busch, Answered
What is Michael Busch’s walk rate in 2026?
Busch is walking at a 15.2 percent clip through the Cardinals series, the 96th percentile in baseball and up from 9.5 percent during his 34-homer 2025 season. It is one of the more significant plate discipline jumps of any qualified hitter in the league this year.
Why has Michael Busch’s power dropped in 2026?
His bat speed is down to 68.4 mph, seventh percentile in baseball, continuing a decline first reported in April rather than one that developed after a strong May. The leading explanation on record is a shortened swing, which trades bat speed for better zone recognition rather than reflecting an undisclosed injury.
Is Michael Busch’s power surge from May or June real?
No single month should be read as a turnaround. Busch’s barrel rate and hard-hit rate spiked in May and fell back in June, while his walk rate stayed elevated in both months, which points to the discipline gain as the durable signal and the power spike as a blip.
Is Michael Busch a fantasy baseball buy right now?
He is a stronger on-base asset than a power one at the moment, which plays better in OBP or points formats than in standard roto categories built around slugging. His rolling expected wOBA has slid from the .380s in mid-June to .339 as of July 3rd, arguing against banking on a power rebound just because the last two weeks looked hot.
Is Michael Busch dealing with an injury?
There is no reported injury, IL stint, or day-to-day designation anywhere on the Cubs’ transaction log this season. One outlet floated the possibility in April as unconfirmed speculation before noting his shortened swing as the more likely explanation, and nothing since has changed that.
Read more Christian Pulisic Reacts to Major Flo Balogun Decision on Sunday
Copyright 2026 The Arena Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved
This story was originally published July 5, 2026 at 10:34 AM.