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The New York Giants are only a slight three-point underdog in Week 1 against the Dallas Cowboys. But those who cover the NFL don’t feel they have much of a chance to win.
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Only two of 23 writers from ESPN, NFL and CBS picked the Giants to protect home-field advantage against the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football at MetLife Stadium.
All 11 of ESPN’s NFL writers picked Dallas, and only Tyler Sullivan from CBS and Brooke Cersosimo from NFL.com took the Giants to start 1-0 for the first time since 2022.
The Cowboys Are Widely Predicted to Win Week 1
The Cowboys have Super Bowl aspirations, with a loaded offense and a first year under new defensive coordinator Christian Parker. So the perception among experts is that Dallas should be an even bigger favorite.
That Dallas is a three-point favorite on the road indicates it is about six points better than the Giants on its home turf. Thus, it’s not exactly stepping out on a limb to pick the Cowboys.
Even Ryan Wilson of NFL.com, who picked the Giants to cover the spread, chose the Cowboys to ultimately win.
Why Some are Picking the Giants
The Giants are a trendy dark-horse playoff pick, and Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk also picked them to shock their division rivals, 23-21.
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“The Giants hired John Harbaugh with the goal of sparking a dramatic turnaround,” Florio wrote. “What better way to do that than to overcome one of their biggest rivals on the weekend of the 25th anniversary of 9/11?”
Likewise, Cersosimo believes the Giants are better than their 4-13 finish, especially on defense.
“This game feels like a massive opportunity for the Giants to course correct after an offseason full of change,” Cersosimo wrote. “John Harbaugh is captaining the ship. Cam Skattebo is healthy. Malik Nabers could be on the verge of returning after missing a majority of last season. Odell Beckham is back. And No. 5 overall draft pick Arvell Reese joined one of the league’s scariest pass rushes (at least on paper).”
Plus, with the Giants emotionally charged following Harbaugh’s addition, and with 80,000-plus roaring them on, the NFL.com writer believes the Giants’ best version will come out.
“You can’t get all caught up in the statistical weeds for Week 1 because we don’t truly know what the 2026 iterations of these clubs look like,” Cersosimo wrote. “I have to lean into the vibes and my gut. We’re talking prime time at MetLife. This just FEELS like Big Blue’s Super Bowl.”
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This story was originally published September 13, 2026 at 12:08 PM.