By admin 
The 49ers have run the gamut under Kyle Shanahan.
They’ve gone to the Super Bowl as many times as injuries have led to six-win seasons. In between they lost consecutive NFC Championship games after 2021 and 2022. Last year might have been the biggest anomaly of Shanahan’s tenure: being among the NFL’s most injured teams and still making a playoff run to the divisional round, where they got thumped by the eventual champion Seattle Seahawks.
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So what’s expected of Shanahan’s group this year, as they open the season Thursday against the Los Angeles Rams in Melbourne, Australia?
History tells us there’s a high variance of outcomes. The 49ers under Shanahan have gone to the playoffs five times and missed them in four. Keep in mind, though, that Shanahan’s first two seasons accounted for half the playoff whiffs when he inherited a miserable 2-14 team in 2016 led by head coach Chip Kelly and general manager Trent Baalke.
Let’s run with the 49ers contending in five of the last seven years, with 2024 and COVID-impacted 2020 as the only years they’ve missed the playoffs since their first Super Bowl trip after 2019. Five of seven amounts to 71%, which is a fair level of confidence to have in this year’s 49ers team, in this writer’s opinion.
We were on hand for many training camp practices and had some broad takeaways.
Offensively, Brock Purdy quietly had a strong camp and seemed as precise as ever. Deebo Samuel looks re-energized following his one-year sabbatical in Washington. Christian McCaffrey managed to stay healthy in August and spent nearly three weeks in bubble wrap.
Defensively, Fred Warner (more on him later) looks fully back from last year’s ankle fracture. The secondary seems invigorated under new defensive coordinator Raheem Morris. Osa Odighizuwa looks like the best interior pass rusher San Francisco has had since DeForest Buckner and/or Sacramento native Arik Armstead.
The rookie class appears to have the most contributors of any class since 2019, with receiver De’Zhaun Stribling and running back Kaelon Black looking like the real deal. We’ll see about pass rusher Romello Height, linebacker Jaden Dugger, defensive tackle Gracen Halton and corner Ephesians Prysock, all of whom have flashed potential.
But there are questions, too, and just about all of them are tied to injuries. What are George Kittle and Nick Bosa going to look like? Are Mike Evans’ constant soft-tissue injuries worrisome, or do they come with the territory? How realistic is it to rely on McCaffrey, who just turned 30 and had 413 touches last year? How worrisome is the situation at left guard, which didn’t seem sorted before the 49ers got a plane Wednesday and took off for Australia?
Those answers will come as games are played. Until then, let’s make some predictions that will undoubtedly be 100% correct with zero chance of embarrassment.
De’Zhaun Stribling: Best rookie year by WR under Shanahan
Yes, we’re drinking the Kool-Aide. Not because Stribling caught 11 of 13 targets for 108 yards in roughly 20 minutes of the first two preseason games combined — but because it verified what was happening on the practice field. Purdy repeatedly noted how Stribling earned his trust in the early going, which isn’t a word often associated with rookie receivers. The 33rd overall pick in this year’s draft caught just about everything thrown his way in 11-on-11 drills, too.
And given Stribling’s ability to block in the running game — something 49ers wideouts were poor at last year — he’ll be on the field a lot working out of the slot like Jauan Jennings on a Mario Kart mushroom.
The best seasons for rookie receivers under Shanahan have been Samuel in 2019 (961 total yards, six total touchdowns) and Brandon Aiyuk in 2020 (825 yards, seven touchdowns).
With McCaffrey, Kittle, Evans and Samuel all in their 30s and/or entering the season with durability questions, Stribling could be among the team’s leaders in targets, even as a rookie.
The prediction: Stribling has 1,024 yards on 81 catches and eight touchdowns this season.
49ers defense will blitz at one of the highest rates in the NFL
Bosa is traveling to Australia despite participating in zero 11-on-11 drills during training camp after dealing with tendinitis in his surgically repaired knee. Height is dealing with an ankle injury and Sam Okuayinonu didn’t fly the team Wednesday because of a foot injury. Formally, the team says he’s questionable for Week 1 against the Rams, but it’ll be hard for him to play if he’s in Santa Clara and not Australia.
Suffice to say, the pass rush might not be firing on all cylinders early in the season. Which could force Morris to dial up blitzes at a rate unfamiliar to San Francisco.
The 49ers last year ranked 24th in the NFL in blitzing, doing so only 21.7% of the time, and that felt like more than former coordinator Robert Saleh wanted to. He did it because Bosa, Mykel Williams and others were in and out of the lineup. Morris’ Falcons last season blitzed at the second-highest rate in the league, 33.9%.
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Broadly, the defensive scheme feels flipped. Saleh last year asked his secondary to run complicated disguises in coverage to help make up for a lack of talent up front. This year, Morris is making things complicated up front and asking the secondary to play more instinctually. Which could mean more blitzes, including operating in five-man fronts, with man-to-man coverage more often on the back end.
The prediction: The 49ers will be the No. 4 blitzing team in the NFL at 32.4%, give or take.
49ers running game will make a triumphant return in 2026
The 49ers ranked 30th in the NFL averaging just 3.8 yards per carry. They were 29th in yards per carry before contact (0.93) indicating they weren’t a good run blocking team. They were 19th in yards after contact (2.89) which was a credit to McCaffrey, who didn’t look as explosive as he was earlier in his career.
Still, despite struggling in those areas, the 49ers ranked 16th in success rate and 15th overall in rushing expected points added (EPA). They somehow squeezed a league average rushing attack out of a group that struggled to move defenders.
Things will look more normal this year. Evans, Samuel and Stribling should give the team far better blockers on the outside; Kittle missed six games last year; and Black with second-year pro Jordan James give McCaffrey his best backups he’s had since joining the 49ers midway through 2022.
The prediction: San Francisco will rank seventh in the NFL averaging 4.7 yards per carry, with Black supporting McCaffrey more than any backup has in the last five years.
Brock Purdy will be on the MVP ballot
Purdy might have won MVP in 2023 if not for his disastrous Christmas performance against the Baltimore Ravens when he tossed four interceptions. Lamar Jackson, meanwhile, pranced through San Francisco’s defense with 297 total yards and threw two of touchdown passes. It was a signature moment for Jackson as he wrapped up his second MVP with Purdy finishing fourth in voting.
The prediction: Purdy will finish in the top five in MVP voting again, presumably while the 49ers showcase one of the NFL’s most efficient offenses. Purdy will throw for 4,362 yards with 32 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He’ll finish third in MVP while leading an offense that ranks Top 5in most meaningful efficiency metrics, overcoming a defense that ranks in the middle of the pack.
Keep in mind, Purdy last season ranked fourth among all qualified passers in EPA per play, second in completion percentage over expectation and second in success rate. That came while missing eight games with a painful turf toe injury suffered in the season opener. An improved running game and re-vamped receiving corps — and Purdy being healthy for 17 games — could mean his efficiency numbers make him an MVP candidate again.
Assuming the 49ers win enough games.
More 49ers predictions
Fred Warner will win comeback player of the year, marking the second straight time a 49er won the award (McCaffrey). He’ll have 133 tackles, four sacks, three interceptions, two forced fumbles and a fumble return touchdown. He’ll finish third in Defensive Player of the Year voting.
Bosa’s knee issues will limit him to 14 games and he’ll have 8.5 sacks.
Evans’ first season with the 49ers: 15 games, 1,087 yards and 10 touchdowns. He’ll be one of the best red-zone targets in the NFL and a favorite of Purdy near the goal line.
Kittle’s season: 15 games, 974 yards and seven touchdowns.
NFL-wide predictions
NFC playoff teams: Lions (13-4), Seahawks (13-4), Cowboys (12-5), Saints (10-7), Eagles (11-6), 49ers (11-6), Rams (10-7)
AFC playoff teams: Ravens (12-5), Texans (12-5), Chargers (11-6), Bills (11-6), Jaguars (11-6), Broncos (10-7), Patriots (10-7).
49ers fate: Losses at Rams, at Seahawks, at Cowboys, vs. Vikings, at Chargers and vs. Eagles. In the playoffs, the 49ers will beat the Cowboys in the NFC Wild Card round, beat the Eagles in the divisional round and lose to the Rams in the NFC title game at Levi’s Stadium.
Super Bowl LXI: The Rams, who barely make it into the playoffs while dealing with injuries throughout the regular season, will beat the Texans in the Super Bowl, 24-18, on their home field at SoFi Stadium. Myles Garrett will have two sacks, including a forced fumble, and be named Super Bowl MVP.
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