By admin 
Good morning,
Almost everything that is wrong with the Padres manifested early last night.
They were given a chance to practically run away with a game in the first inning and did not.
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Immediately after that, their starting pitcher unraveled.
The season was arguably in danger of following suit.
That was how big the moment felt when Manny Machado stepped to the plate with two out and the bases loaded in a game the Padres almost impossibly trailed by two runs in the second inning.
And then Machado drove in two runs. And then the Padres added on in the next two innings. And then they took the lead again. And then their bullpen closed out an 8-7 victory over the Blue Jays.
And so the Padres might just have lived to fight another day.
“We’re in a position where we could potentially get to October, but we’re going to have to get better, and we’re going to have to improve,” Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller said yesterday afternoon. “… We’ve got to play better here in the second half. We’ve been in this spot a couple of times here in the last few years, and then we’ve been able to play really well in August and September. But each year is different.”
The Padres still plan to be buyers at the trade deadline. But they are absolutely willing to be sellers.
They intend to use the next two weeks to determine which it will be.
No decisions would have been sealed, but last night could have effectively accelerated the process toward divesting of any pretense that 2026 is the Padres’ year. There already is a contingent within the organization that believes this team has too many holes to sufficiently patch up.
A team with one dependable starting pitcher and an offense that repeatedly squanders opportunity is not a team to invest in.
The Padres are being evaluated by Preller and his bosses (and his future bosses) based on their ability to be better and more consistent.
And while Walker Buehler did nothing to assuage the deep-seated fear that the starting rotation simply is not up to the task of being competitive, the offense did what it had to do.
It scored enough to win.
You can read in my game story (here) about the deranged start to last night’s game and how the Padres were given a lead, lost the lead, got the lead back, lost it, got it back for good and protected it.
“A lot of layers to this game, but a lot of fight from our team,” Padres manager Craig Stammen said. “This team is not giving up. That’s just a fact. We’ve seen that the entire year. That is one quality that they have amongst a lot of the struggles that we’ve had this year. They do not give up, and it’s a tough group in there that seems to be very resilient, and that’s going to bode well for the second half of the season.”
That remains a hefty maybe.
Last night was the Padres’ 24th comeback victory but just their third in their past 15 games. It was also the first time in the past six games in which they lost a lead that they ended up winning.
While it was more spectacular than normal, last night was just another blow-up by a starting pitcher. And it was a rare pickup by the offense. It was the 15th time in their past 39 games the Padres allowed at least five runs and the second time the Padres won one of those games.
“We’re gonna need more of that,” Stammen said. “Our pitching is – you know, we’ve talked a lot about it with the injuries and mixing and matching and trying to figure it out. The offense, we’ve got guys that are gonna be here for a while and they’ve hit for a long time in their career, and for them to kind of carry the team a little bit is a little bit of what we need.”
Manny handled it
The Padres had seven baserunners before getting their first hit last night.
Had that hit not come when it did, it is difficult to envision the rest of the night going the Padres’ way. They have numerous times had an opposing starting pitcher on the ropes before and let him escape, and they have rarely punched back after that happens.
That first hit came at the end of a fascinating and fantastic at-bat by Machado in the second inning.
Part of the reason the at-bat must be considered so excellent was that he bounced back from having had such an unfortunate and ultimately poor at-bat in the first inning.
Blue Jays starting pitcher Trey Yesavage threw one strike to the first three batters he faced last night, and Machado came to the plate with the bases loaded and nobody out in the first.
After watching a ball and a strike, Machado checked his swing on a slider down and away, but home plate umpire Adam Hamari ruled he swung. Machado was livid. He animatedly kicked at the ground and took a step back while Hamari responded to the mass complaints from the Padres’ dugout about why he had not conferred with first base umpire Jen Pawol. Before fully getting back in the batter’s box, Machado called timeout and stepped back out.
He then fouled off a slider in the bottom corner of the zone and watched a ball before getting under a slider hung in the heart of the strike zone and popping it up behind the plate, where it was caught for the first out.
“Check swing, I didn’t go, he called it,” Machado said. “It kind of changed my at-bat. I got a little emotional. So it kind of ruined my whole at-bat. (Yesavage) gave me a pitch to hit a homer, and I didn’t.”
The Padres ended up scoring twice in the first on a base-loaded walk by Gavin Sheets and Ty France’s sacrifice fly.
Down 4-2 by the time they came to bat in the second inning, Yesavage again walked the bases full. But this time he got two outs in between. Retiring Machado again and ending the inning would have been no small victory.
Yesavage proceeded to throw three straight balls to Machado, and then he threw a fourth. But Hamari called that one – a fastball well below the knees – a strike. Machado did not ask for an ABS challenge.
“I didn’t think it was a strike,” he said. “(Yesavage) just has such a high release, and it’s hard to see down there.”
Machado had started to walk toward first base after the pitch crossed the plate.
“I mean, yes and no, but I’m not gonna burn a challenge so early in that situation,” he said. “And I honestly couldn’t tell.”
The at-bat resumed, and Machado fouled off a fastball up and over the middle to run the count full before lining a fastball down and on the inner third of the plate into left-center field to drive in two runs and tie the game 4-4.
“You can write that I took it on purpose to get two RBIs instead of one,” Machado eventually said last night. “But I wanted four. I got greedy.”
He was being facetious, I think.
Stammen wasn’t sure about the reality either. But he knows Machado well enough to know anything was possible.
“That is why Manny is Manny, because 99% of people would have challenged the 3-0 pitch,” Stammen said. “And I don’t know whether – he said he was moving towards first base and didn’t get a good look at it. But he has the belief in himself that he would rather swing the bat than take a walk. And there’s times when it doesn’t work out for him that way. And then there’s other times where he’s Manny Machado and he gets the big hit there when nobody else can get a hit.”
Said Machado: “I trust myself. I trust myself in that situation to give him a strike there.”
France’s blast
The at-bat France had that resulted in his game-deciding home run was pretty excellent as well.
On the ninth pitch he saw from Mason Fluharty in the sixth inning, France launched a sweeper left over the middle off the facing of the second balcony on the Western Metal building to break a 7-7 tie.
Fluharty, as many pitchers do, was working France on the outer third of the plate most of the at-bat before his eighth pitch was a sweeper in that France fouled straight down. The next pitch was a sweeper in almost the same spot – just not quite as well-placed, which is often a recipe for disaster for a pitcher since it gives a batter a repeat look at the same (just not as good) pitch.
“The first one he got in a little more, and I fouled it off my foot,” France said. “And I think he was trying to go back to that with a little more emphasis on getting it in, and he just missed. And I put a good swing.”
Buehler? Buehler?
Major league teams are winning almost 70% of the games in which their starting pitcher gives them exactly five innings and allows two or fewer runs this season.
So we should consider a pitcher reaching those thresholds to have turned in a good start.
The Padres have gotten 38 starts this season in which their starter has gone at least five innings and allowed no more than two runs, 10th fewest in the major leagues.
Michael King leads the team with 11. Buehler is second with nine.
But Buehler has not been good in July.
After allowing one run in each of his five starts in June and going at least five innings in four of those, Buehler has allowed 20 runs in 11 innings in three starts this month.
Last night, he was removed after allowing four runs in the second inning last night.
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He has surrendered at least three runs in four of the 11 innings he has pitched in that span.
He did allow another home run last night, his sixth in the three games.
But his main problem was that he could hardly throw a strike – missing all over but primarily with his cutter and four-seam fastball, especially above the zone – while walking four batters in the second inning and going to three balls against nine of the 13 batters he faced.
“The same miss over and over, left and high,” Buehler said. “I don’t know. I think the All-Star break is coming at a good time for me. So try not to put too much stock into it. … Obviously, the past two or past three have been really rough, so good time to take kind of a step back and see what we’re doing.”
Buehler said he plans to throw next week.
“There’s work that I need to be doing,” he said. “And I certainly will.”
It was just two weeks ago the Padres counted Buehler among their reasons for optimism. At worst, he was a trade chip.
“Hopefully, maybe a little bit of break over the All-Star break,” Stammen said. “He’s not a spring chicken. He’s got a lot of innings under his belt, and maybe he just needs a little bit of a breather. You can definitely see you know he’s not as sharp as he was back in June. We’ll get him right and get him back to that pitcher that we saw that was very effective for us.”
Back in action
Matt Waldron gave the Padres exactly what they needed on his first day back with the team, taking over for Buehler to start the third inning and throwing three scoreless innings while the Padres built a 7-4 lead.
“I knew we needed innings,” Waldron said. “Three was kind of the goal. Just wanted to slow them down, cool them off.”
Waldron made five starts for Triple-A El Paso while rehabbing a forearm strain that landed him on the injured list in May. The longest was four innings and 60 pitches, which was 14 more than he threw last night.
Waldron began the season on the injured list after a truncated spring and then posted a 9.88 ERA in three starts. He came out of the bullpen in three games, allowing seven runs over 9⅔ innings before going on the IL.
Jhony Brito was optioned to make room for Waldron.
Playing Song
Sung-Mun Song started nine times in his first 27 games with the Padres (May 5 to June 4) and seven times in the next 23 games (June 5 to June 30).
Last night was his eighth start in the past 11 games.
The playing time has clearly helped him.
“I’m thankful for the opportunity the team is giving me right now,” Song said through interpreter Jun Yi. “I’m trying to prove I deserve a spot – defensively, hitting, baserunning, whatever the team needs to win.”
Song gave the Padres a 6-4 lead with a two-run single in last night’s third inning. It was the left-handed batter’s first hit in seven at-bats against a left-handed pitcher. Song also walked and scored in the second inning, and he stole second after his single. He is 11-for-13 on steal attempts on the season.
“Feels like he’s finding his groove and playing like the player he played like in Korea,” Stammen said. “Big left-on-left hit today. Great play at third base, taking walks, making good swings, stealing bases. So complete player on display. We’re going to continue to find ways to get him in the lineup.”
Last night was Song’s fourth time starting at third base, which is the position he played for nine seasons in the Korean Baseball Organization. All four of those starts have come in the past 11 games, as Machado has served as designated hitter three times and rested once in that span.
Song started three games at second base in the past 11 days and once in place of shortstop Xander Bogaerts.
“The left side of our infield is a little older and they can wear down a little bit playing every single day,” Stammen said of the 34-year-old Machado and 33-year-old Bogaerts. “(Song) being able to play third, short, second, give (Jake Cronenworth) a day when he needs to or (when) Croney (moves) to first. Hopefully, the game plan is to keep these guys fresh for the end of the season, so they can get hot and we’re playing our best baseball at the end. You’ve got to get there to begin with, but in the meantime, Song is just providing very good production while those guys essentially aren’t playing the field.”
Song has played excellent defense from his first game, and last night he made a diving catch to end the fourth inning.
Song is not as willing to praise his overall game as Stammen just yet.
“Hitting is really hard in the big leagues,” he said. “I’m facing the best pitchers in the world every day. Defensively and baserunning, I think I’m performing well, just like in Korea. But hitting-wise, I need to improve.”
Joe’s milestone, what’s next
This is big.
Joe Musgrove reached 10 years of service time yesterday, a mark achieved by fewer than 10% of the nearly 24,000 men who have ever played in the major leagues.
“I’m proud of it,” Musgrove said. “I wish I was in different circumstances. But still, to get to the 10-year mark is pretty cool.”
Musgrove, who has not pitched since he walked off the field in Game 2 of the 2024 National League Wild Card Series and had Tommy John surgery a week later, continues to work to make those circumstances different.
He threw his second bullpen session Friday and has another one scheduled for Tuesday.
He and Nick Pivetta, who yesterday threw his fifth bullpen session, are targeting August returns.
For Musgrove, his being shut down in spring training was not a direct result of his Tommy John surgery. He has been pitching with eroded cartilage in his elbow for years and essentially bone on bone. He had figured out how to pitch through the pain of a torn ligament and the lack of cartilage. When the ligament was repaired, it essentially created new issues.
His recovery has involved figuring out adjustments in his delivery and working up to where he can manage the wear and tear.
He and Pivetta could be throwing to batters by next week. While Pivetta has been a week or more ahead of Musgrove in stages of building up, Musgrove said he has reached a point where he is “trying to expedite that process a little bit.”
He is feeling pain-free during, after and between his bullpens.
“I feel like I’m recovering really well,” he said. “… (That) is different than it’s been for the past handful of months.”
This talk of acceleration is different, but it is what the Padres and Musgrove have expected would happen once he got to a certain point.
“Obviously we want to get back here as soon as possible,” Musgrove said. “So, being smart along the way but probably skipping a few of the extra lives and the extra (simulated) games. Just try to get right to it. … I think in a month I can make up a lot of ground and get in a really good spot.
“It’s going to be somewhat dictated on where we’re at and the plan of the team. But I’ll tell you right now, I’m not going to shut down just because we’re out of it. It’s really important for me to get back and pitch and earn my stay here. Obviously, I’m not going to force things and rush things back if there is no race. But I want to get back, and I want to pitch this year.”
So he anxiously watches the Padres play even as he pushes himself. He believes a return to health by the pitching staff can supplement any additions the front office makes.
“We’ve just got to hold tight until we can get back in there,” he said. “If you know you got me and Nick running out there, and you got (relievers Jeremiah) Estrada and Jason (Adam) back in and things start to look like our team again, guys play a little more confident.
“That’s why I think the next two weeks are super important – the next week, really – for me and Nick to show them that there is a realistic chance that we get back and we could be good. It might encourage or swing their decision on whether to move guys or add guys.”
Musgrove’s desire to return in 2026 is also with an eye toward the looming work stoppage, as owners are expected to lock out players on Dec. 1. The prevalent belief in baseball is that at least some games (and possibly the entire ‘27 season) will be lost to the labor war. That is the final year of Musgrove’s contract with the Padres.
“That’s a big part of it,” he said. “Who knows what opportunity we’ll have next year?”
What is most clear is that Musgrove does not intend for 10 years to be the end. He thrives on the competition, cherishes the relationships, considers sacred the role of teammate and leader.
“I love the game so much, I don’t plan on stopping soon,” he said. “As long as a team will take me, I want to play this game as long as I can. Especially now. I envisioned myself in a lot different position when my 10-year mark came and envisioned our team in a lot different position. And I feel like I have a lot of energy and passion for the game still. The physical part is not allowing me to do it right now. But every part of me still wants it, and I’m still ready and committed to work to get it.”
Tidbits
- Jeff Sanders wrote (here) about the pitcher the Padres selected in the first round and wrote (here) about all of their picks yesterday. The draft continues today.
- Six of the Padres’ runs were scored by players who reached base via walk or being hit by a pitch.
- The 20 baserunners (eight hits, 11 walks, one hit batter) were the Padres’ most in a game this season.
- Sheets was 0-for-2 but walked three times to extend his on-base streak to 12 games. He is reaching base at a .367 clip during the streak. His .184 average during the streak is the lowest by any player with an on-base streak of at least 12 games this season.
- France’s home run was his 11th of the season and his 20th with the Padres, for whom he played in 2019 and ‘20. He also was hit by a pitch and scored in the third inning. He finished 2-for-3. It was his second consecutive two-hit game, and he is batting .341 (15-for-44) over his past 13 games.
- Cronenworth (2-for-4) had multiple hits for the fourth time in his past 10 games. He is batting .316 (12-for-38) with a double and two homers in that stretch.
- Cronenworth stole two bases for the first time in 797 career games.
- Merrill was 2-for-3 with two walks. His 21 multi-hit games are second most on the team behind Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 27. Merrill is batting .288 with a .723 OPS over his past 15 games, which has his season average up to .222 and his OPS up to .634. Those numbers were .209 and .617 before this stretch of 15 games.
- Merrill was caught stealing for just the second time in 21 attempts. Except it sure seemed he was not out. What he seemed to be was a victim of the rule that the replay official must have definitive evidence that the call on the field was wrong in order to overturn it. Here is video of the play.
All right, that’s it for me. Huge computer problems while doing this newsletter. Early game today (1:10 p.m. PT) and then a flight to Philadelphia.
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Talk to you tomorrow.
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