Predicting 3 Key Steelers Stat Lines Against Falcons in Week 1

Head coach Mike McCarthy will soon lead his new team, the Pittsburgh Steelers, into Acrisure Stadium for his first regular-season game as the man in charge. The Atlanta Falcons will visit Sunday for a 1 p.m. kickoff, ushering in two new eras. Atlanta, of course, also has a new head coach, as Kevin Stefanski will lead the Falcons into a stadium he knows well after spending six seasons coaching the Cleveland Browns.

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Pittsburgh will have its hands full as the Falcons present a number of challenges. Still, the Steelers will want to get the McCarthy era off to a strong start, and several players could play a major role in making that happen. Here is a prediction of three key Steelers and their stat lines on Sunday:

Aaron Rodgers

Prediction: 25 completions, 37 attempts, 272 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 84.2 QB rating

Rodgers’ final season opener should feature plenty of attention. After sitting out the preseason, the veteran quarterback will finally take the field with his new teammates in a meaningful game.

There could be some early rust, particularly with Rodgers playing in a new but familiar offense, and working with several new offensive weapons. However, his experience and familiarity with McCarthy’s system should help him settle in quickly.

Atlanta’s defense could give Rodgers opportunities downfield with DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr. while also forcing him to make some difficult decisions. Two interceptions may be an aggressive prediction, but Rodgers should still make enough plays to finish with a productive debut.

Jaylen Warren

Prediction: 11 carries, 67 rushing yards; 3 receptions, 47 receiving yards, 1 TD

Warren could become one of the Steelers’ most important offensive weapons Sunday. While Rico Dowdle brings plenty of familiarity with McCarthy, Warren’s ability to contribute both as a runner and receiver gives Pittsburgh another dimension.

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The Steelers should look to establish the run early, and Warren could benefit from Atlanta focusing much of its attention on Rodgers and Pittsburgh’s receivers. His receiving ability could be just as important, particularly on screens and underneath routes.

A total of 114 yards from scrimmage would make Warren one of the game’s more productive offensive players, and a touchdown would cap off an impressive opening performance.

T.J. Watt

Prediction: 4 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble

Watt has been waiting for this moment just like the rest of Pittsburgh. With the regular season finally here, expect the Steelers’ defensive centerpiece to make his presence felt. He also has something to prove in 2026.

Atlanta’s offensive line will have to account for Watt on virtually every passing down, but Pittsburgh’s new schematics on defense could create opportunities for him to attack. If the Steelers can force the Falcons into obvious passing situations, Watt should have chances to pressure the quarterback.

A sack and a half and a forced fumble would represent the type of impact Pittsburgh has come to expect from its star pass rusher.

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This story was originally published September 11, 2026 at 7:00 AM.

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