By admin 
Trouble in the Bronx? The Tampa Bay Rays are catching steam, and so is their price to win the AL Championship. The New York Yankees remain the favorites to win the American League on Kalshi’s MLB market, but the Rays are well within striking distance.
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The Yankees sit at 26% to win the American League at the time of writing. Tampa Bay sits just behind with 24%. These are the only teams priced above 15%. A $10 trade profits $26.53 for the Yankees to win and $29.54 for the Rays.
American League winner – Kalshi
- New York Yankees 26%
- Tampa Bay Rays 24%
- Boston Red Sox 13%
- Houston Astros 12%
- Chicago White Sox 10%
The Yankees have remained firm at the top of the board around the 26% mark over the last month. Tampa Bay, though, has stormed to the top after starting at 3% in mid-June.
Only a matter of time
The Rays officially took over first place in the American League from the Yankees on June 27 and have held a multi-game lead since. Tampa Bay (74-49) currently sits 5.5 games ahead of the Yankees (69-55).
Tampa Bay outperforms the Yankees in several categories this season at bat. Starting at the plate, the Rays have the advantage in hits (1,078 to 940), runs (559 to 551), strikeouts (875 to 1,135), OBP (.331 to .308), and average (.261 to .229).
On the mound, the Yankees’ rotation is one of the best in the MLB and holds the top ERA (3.26), which is likely what holds up their price.
Yankees slide, Rays rise
The Yankees have struggled since returning from the All-Star break, with a 15-13 record and currently riding a 1-3 stretch in their last four games. Despite their rough patch, Kalshi insists on keeping their price around 25%.
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As for the Rays, they’ve been one of the hotter teams in the league, going 20-12 since the break. Their price to win the American League jumped 9% since the start of the second half of the season.
The Yankees and Rays have met nine times this season with Tampa Bay leading the season series 6-3. They’ll meet one more time in each of their second-to-last series of the season on September 22.
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Today’s best reads
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- Kalshi Promo Code SIBONUS: Trade $20, Get $20 for MLB & WNBA Predictions on Monday
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- Kalshi Promo Code SIBONUS: Trade $20, Get $20 on Friday’s NFL, MLB and WNBA Slate
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Rays Close Gap on Yankees in AL Champion Prediction Market.
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This story was originally published August 18, 2026 at 5:24 AM.