Why some California Republican voters plan to vote for an establishment Democrat

Kelley Nalewaja is the kind of lifelong Republican voter that the party can always count on.

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She grew up to parents who — shaped by Holocaust-survivor relatives and generations of farmers in the South — instilled a deep appreciation for America’s history. At 18, Nalewaja proudly cast her first vote for former President Ronald Reagan.

She has spent the next 40 years voting exclusively for GOP candidates in every California election. But this November, Nalewaja will vote for a Democrat.

That candidate is U.S. Rep. Doris Matsui, D-Sacramento. She’s a pillar of the Democratic establishment who is backed by a litany of major party leaders including Gov. Gavin Newsom and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Nalewaja’s decision, however, is less a vote for longtime representative than a rebuke of Matsui’s progressive challenger: Sacramento Councilmember Mai Vang. The two Democrats are in a fierce intraparty battle for the 7th Congressional District, which will represent about 760,000 people and includes Sacramento’s downtown core along with parts of El Dorado and San Joaquin counties.

“Literally, (Vang) is the reason I’m voting for Doris,” Nalewaja, 59, said.

In interviews with a dozen Republican voters across the 7th District, a clear pattern emerged. The voters, who ranged from 24 to 83, will either sit out the race or begrudgingly back Matsui to prevent Vang from winning the seat.

That Republican opposition will likely carry more weight than in past elections for the solidly blue seat. Proposition 50 expanded the Republican share of the 7th District electorate by adding Placerville and GOP-leaning suburbs to the northeast.

Republicans consisted of about 29% of the registered voters in the district, . In the June primary, nearly 78,000 people voted for the 7th District Republican candidates — more than either Vang and Matsui received individually.

The race will also be the Sacramento region’s first major test of a candidate associated with Democratic socialism, a term that has gained support in the Democratic mainstream but remains deeply unpopular among Republicans. A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey released last month found Californians evenly divided on candidates described as Democratic socialists.

Vang has rejected the socialist label and calls herself a progressive Democrat.

Among Republicans interviewed, opposition to Vang was largely rooted in a belief that she is part of a growing socialist movement as well as her refusal to recite the Pledge of Allegiance. Right-wing media outlets highlighted both issues in the lead-up to the primary.

“I will do everything I can to convince other people not to vote for Vang,” said Terry Gherardi, a longtime Republican voter in El Dorado County, who repeatedly linked Vang with socialism.

Political experts say perceptions of Vang are likely to weigh heavily in the general election. She has made an ardent case for generational and progressive change, drawing comparisons to Democratic Socialists of America members New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

“There’s a chance that some (Republicans) may be persuaded by Vang’s economic messaging, but the likelihood of them doing that deep dive homework and not being repelled by other aspects of her platform is pretty small,” said Kim Nalder, a political science professor and director of the non-partisan Project for an Informed Electorate at Sacramento State.

Vang argues her platform, which is focused on improving the lives of working families, will appeal to voters across the political spectrum who are tired of establishment politicians “bought by corporations.” Republican voters care less about labels than about whether politicians can make their lives more affordable, Vang added.

“I feel confident that voters will see right through that we need a fighter in this moment because our system is broken,” Vang, 41, told The Sacramento Bee last week. “Our system is broken for Republican voters, for Democratic voters, for no party preference.”

Matsui, through her campaign team, declined interview requests. Her campaign spokesperson Roger Salazar, in response to questions, provided a written statement in which Matsui called herself a “problem solver” with a “record of delivering for this region.”

“My strategy to earn the support of voters will be to continue bringing people together to solve problems, while my opponent pits people against each other with empty slogans on social media,” Matsui, 81, said.

‘Win it themselves’

Dozens of people gathered last month for a meeting at the El Dorado County Republican Party’s headquarters in Cameron Park, a suburban community about 30 miles east of Sacramento. The modest space featured many typical signs of GOP allegiance — posters supporting gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton, shirts that read “Gulf of America” and a life-size cutout of a smiling President Donald Trump giving two thumbs up.

The group’s agenda that night mostly centered on hearing from Republican candidates running for local races. Members of the political organization later voted on which of these candidates would be endorsed by the group.

For the 7th District primary, the organization endorsed Republican college student Zachariah Wooden, who led Vang in the early returns before she surged ahead and advanced along with Matsui. The two highest vote-getters advance to the general election, regardless of party, under California’s primary system.

The El Dorado County group will not endorse either Democratic candidate for the general election, per the state Republican Party’s rules.

Even so, group Chair Todd White said there have been discussions about the group releasing a general position statement on the race. That likelihood is currently slim as many members feel neither candidate has a grasp of the region’s rural issues, he added.

“This is a problem when you put urban and rural areas together in the same district,” White said.

Under the current district lines, most of El Dorado County’s population is represented by conservative stalwart and Trump loyalist Rep. Tom McClintock. The remaining portions are in the district of Rep. Kevin Kiley, a former Republican who became an independent earlier this year.

But the lines created by Proposition 50, a voter-approved initiative to redraw the state’s congressional map in Democrats’ favor, have changed which members of Congress will represent most county residents.

Many constituents will now be represented by the winner of the 7th District race. Others will be in the 3rd District, which is expected to be won by Democratic Rep. Ami Bera. Some people will remain under McClintock.

“Everyone that is coming into our office is saying they’re going to skip that race on their ballots,” White said.

Oscar Bejarano, 78, is one of those voters. He lives in Georgetown, a small unincorporated community near the northern edge of the newly drawn district that is currently represented by Kiley.

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He cited frustration with choosing between two people who he said have little understanding of the region’s foothill communities, increased traffic congestion and reliance on the lumber industry. Parts of the county, including El Dorado Hills and Diamond Springs, have more than doubled their populations since 2000, according to previous reporting from The Bee.

“They’re going to have to win it themselves,” Bejarano said.

Christian Grose, a professor of political science and public policy at the University of Southern California, said there is historically about a 10% to 20% Republican voter dropoff in intraparty Democratic elections in California. That number is typically lower during elections with a top of ticket race such as the governor.

“More importantly, still like 80% or 90% of Republicans are casting ballots when there are two Democrats on the ballot, and that’s pretty meaningful because they have the potential to influence the winner,” Grose said.

‘Probably hold their nose and vote for Matsui’

For some Republicans, their planned vote for Matsui is an uncomfortable but necessary duty to keep Vang out of Congress.

“Out of the two options, the lesser evil is Doris Matsui because she’s not as radical,” said Marissa Forte, a 24-year-old Republican voter living in downtown Sacramento.

Forte was one of several voters who shared that they feel Vang’s views and policies are part of the Democrat Party’s shift towards socialism and communism. As democratic socialist candidates have won several House primaries across the country in the last few months, the label has become a sweeping term to describe many progressive candidates including those who reject the term.

Vang is endorsed by the Sacramento Democratic Socialists of America, but not by the national chapter. She said the local endorsement is a reflection of some policy agreement, not an ideological label. Vang calls herself a progressive Democrat whose priorities are to ensure families have affordable healthcare, housing and childcare.

“When I get asked, I absolutely clarify, but I don’t want to get caught up in labels,” Vang said. “When you get caught up in labels, you’re not focused on the issue.”

Perception of Vang has been amplified by some of her positions. She supports Medicare for All and abolishing the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, both of which align with DSA’s national platform.

The DSA platform covers a range of issues. Some stances, including ending economic aid to Israel and taxing billionaires, have high levels of support within the Democratic voter base. Others, like abolishing the Senate and Supreme Court, are more controversial and used by Republicans to hammer DSA candidates as out of step with the American mainstream.

Nalewaja said she has always, out of principle, avoided voting in Democrat versus Democrat races. This time, her strong opposition to socialism has compelled a vote for Matsui. She believes the Republican voting bloc is crucial to a Matsui election.

“The Democratic current voting base in California could easily be very in the middle between the two,” she said. “So then, ultimately, who gets to decide who wins? It’s going to be the Republicans.”

Grose said any messaging of socialism or communism in the race stands to benefit Matsui, who will be viewed as the more moderate option despite a long career in alignment with the Democratic Party.

“If Vang is getting tagged as a socialist and a communist — extremely far left — that’s just not going to appeal to Republican voters,” Grose said. “So, the Republican voters, in that sense, will probably hold their nose and vote for Matsui.”

In addition to Vang’s policies, Republican voters pointed to her longstanding practice on the Pledge of Allegiance. She abstains from saluting the flag or reciting the pledge and instead chooses to observe in prayer.

“I know Doris Matsui is respectful of the flag, at least,” Gherardi said.

Vang has previously said her choice is to reflect on the “injustices and harm that continue to affect so many, both locally and across the globe, under this nation’s influence.” Earlier this year, her decision drew national attention with conservative news outlets criticizing her for “turning her back” on the American flag.

“I love this country with all my heart,” Vang told The Bee last month in response to the criticism. “I have two baby brothers in the military, and I’m running for Congress to fight for our working families to ensure that every resident, every individual in this country can fulfill the American dream.”

‘Track toward the center’

Matsui’s ability to win over Republican voters — while holding on to Democrats — may ultimately depend on how much she chooses to moderate her message in the months ahead. Like most House Democrats across the country, she has strongly and publicly opposed many Republican-led policies during Trump’s two terms.

“She appears to be more liberal than she’s ever been before,” White said.

White pointed to an El Dorado Hills Chamber of Commerce luncheon earlier this month, where Matsui appeared as a guest speaker, as an effort to reach independent and Republican voters. The event did not go as planned, he said.

White said Republican voters who attended told him Matsui performed “badly” before the chamber, which he described as a nonpartisan organization that “definitely leans conservative.” Nalewaja, who attended, said Matsui appeared unfamiliar with issues facing people living in the Sierra foothills.

“You gotta know your audience,” Nalewaja said. “I don’t think she really researched the audience.”

Sacramento State’s Nalder said Matsui is likely to moderate more of her campaign messages in the months leading up to November. Matsui’s campaign did not respond to questions about planned meetings with Republican groups or strategies to win GOP voters.

White said Matsui’s team has reached out to the El Dorado County Republican leadership for a meeting which will likely take place in the next few weeks. He welcomed a similar meeting with Vang if she reached out.

“We can expect Matsui to try to track toward the center and make an appeal to those voters that are more to the right in her district, and so it’ll be kind of interesting to see what kind of campaign messages come out,” Nalder said.

A move toward the center could create an opportunity for Vang to win some of the Democratic voters who supported Matsui in the primary, Grose noted. Vang, who was largely carried by Democratic voters, won the top spot in June with about 65,000 votes compared to Matsui’s 61,000.

“In these districts that are overwhelmingly Democratic, the main incentive is to win as many Democratic votes as possible because that’s who the majority is,” Grose said. “But if it’s really competitive, Republicans may provide the swing.”

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