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Hurricane Isaias strengthened again Thursday morning after being upgraded to a hurricane late Wednesday night by the National Hurricane Center.
In its 10 a.m. report Thursday, Hurricane Isaias was found to have maximum sustained winds of 85 mph and was located 380 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The storm is moving east-northeast at 10 mph, with forecasters believing tropical-storm force winds could reach the Mississippi Coast as early as midday Friday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb.
Jackson County remains in the forecasters’ “cone of uncertainty,” showing a Mississippi landfall remains a possibility. The NHC’s track shifted slightly west overnight, from Pensacola to Orange Beach, Alabama.
Meteorologists with the NHC warned residents across the Mississippi Coast and beyond that “additional strengthening is expected through early Friday, and Isaias should remain a strong hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Friday night.” The 10 a.m. forecast is calling for Isaias’ maximum sustained winds to reach more than 105 mph by tonight’s 10 p.m. update.
The NHC believes Hurricane Isaias will approach major hurricane status, with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph early Friday morning, just one mph shy of Category 3. In the 4 a.m. advisory, the hurricane center said “preparations to protect life and property from storm surge and damaging winds along the warning area of the Gulf Coast should be rushed to completion today.”
When is landfall expected?
On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula later today and make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast within the warning area late Friday or early Saturday.
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How strong will Isaias be?
The National Hurricane Center says an intensity forecast “continues to be somewhat tricky.” Isaias is dealing with around 20 knots of westerly vertical wind shear, and an eyewall keeps coming and going in aircraft fixes. Other environmental factors are quite favorable, though, for strengthening.
Because the shear is not forecast to increase appreciably for the next 24 hours, and because the hurricane has been intensifying despite the shear, significant intensification is still expected in the short-term, making Isaias just shy of major hurricane intensity in 24 hours.
This part of the intensity forecast is on the higher end of the guidance, close to the HCCA and GDMI intensity aids. In the final 12-24 hours before Isaias makes landfall on the north Gulf coast, vertical wind shear ramps up to 40-50 knots, and this will likely impart some weakening.
However, at the same time, the hurricane’s wind field may become broader and more asymmetric as it begins to interact with the short-wave trough capturing it from the west. Regardless, Isaias is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through landfall, and gusty winds are expected well inland after landfall given the anticipated expansion of the wind field and accelerating forward speed of the storm.
Current warnings and watches
- A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwanee River in Florida.
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Ocean Springs to the Gulf County in Florida.
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, and Gulf County to the Aucilla River in Florida.
- A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown in Florida.
What current warnings and watches mean
- A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
- A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
- A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
- A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
Watch, advisory, warning: What’s the difference?
- A watch is issued when the risk of a hazardous weather or hydrologic event has increased significantly, but its occurrence, location or timing is still uncertain. It is intended to provide enough lead time so those who need to set their plans in motion can do so. A watch means that hazardous weather is possible. People should have a plan of action in case a storm threatens and they should listen for later information and possible warnings especially when planning travel or outdoor activities.
- An advisory is issued when a hazardous weather or hydrologic event is occurring, imminent or likely. Advisories are for less serious conditions than warnings, that cause significant inconvenience and if caution is not exercised, could lead to situations that may threaten life or property.
- A warning is issued when a hazardous weather or hydrologic event is occurring, imminent or likely. A warning means weather conditions pose a threat to life or property. People in the path of the storm need to take protective action.
‘Key messages’ from National Hurricane Center at 10 a.m.
The National Hurricane Center identified these “key messages” in its 10 a.m. advisory Thursday:
- A life-threatening storm surge is expected from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Suwannee, Florida. Residents in the warning area should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if told to do so.
- Damaging hurricane force-winds are expected over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should prepare for the possibility of long-duration power outages.
- Damaging wind gusts are possible over much of central and northern Alabama and portions of western and northern Georgia, especially in areas of higher terrain. Additional Tropical Storm and High Wind Watches and Warnings will likely be required for portions of that area later today. Residents should secure loose outdoor items, avoid driving high-profile vehicles, and prepare for power outages.
- Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast and much of the Southeast Friday into the weekend. Considerable flash and urban flooding, along with significant river flooding, will be possible.
- Isaias could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portion of the Yucatan Peninsula today.
This story was originally published October 8, 2026 at 4:59 AM with the headline “Latest updates: Hurricane Isaias intensifies, ‘dangerous’ landfall expected.”
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