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The Florida State Seminoles return home to Doak Campbell Stadium for their fourth game of the 2026 season. After back-to-back matchups against ranked opponents, the Seminoles will host the Central Arkansas Bears from the FCS ranks on Saturday afternoon.
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Florida State came up short in Tuscaloosa last weekend. Though it was a promising start, the Seminoles couldn’t maintain their first-quarter effort throughout the rest of the game, falling 50-36.
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Central Arkansas is 2-2 through four games, losing on the road to Southeast Missouri State in Week 3. The Bears were outscored 17-3 in the final frame. Head coach Nathan Brown was a college teammate of Mike Norvell in the early 2000s.
Our staff provides their predictions and analysis as the Seminoles look to get back in the winning column.
Dustin Lewis (@DustinLewisNG)
I’m not going to get too long-winded this week. Florida State is a six and a half touchdown favorite against Central Arkansas, and the Seminoles haven’t even scored more than 36 points in a single game.
Florida State should have the advantage in every facet of the game. However, I think the defense will still go through a few struggles, as the unit is in a rough patch.
Ideally, this is the type of contest that the Seminoles will dominate in the first half so we can all finally get a look at the backups. Obviously, everyone wants to see who will be the first man up behind Ashton Daniels – Malachi Marshall or Kevin Sperry.
A few predictions to monitor. Florida State’s defense gives up a touchdown in the first quarter. Ousmane Kromah rushes for 100+ yards for the third time in four games. The Seminoles block a punt or field goal. Malachi Marshall throws his first touchdown in garnet and gold. Jasen Lopez finally gets a catch.
Seminoles roll in Tallahassee ahead of the toughest stretch of the 2026 season.
2026 Season Prediction Record: 2-1
Seminoles 51, Bears 17
Logan Robinson (@LogansTwitty)
Florida State should be able to put this one away quickly. That’s IF they play like they did at the beginning of the game against Alabama.
I’m more intrigued to see if the Seminoles can find their pass rush after an extremely slow start to the season. If it shows no life once again, that’s a MAJOR issue for the rest of the season.
I’ll be keeping a close eye on who the Seminoles put out at QB2, whether it’s Malachi Marshall or Kevin Sperry. If Marshall looks smooth and operates the offense well, we’ll have some fun conversations next week.
2026 Season Prediction Record: 3-0
Seminoles 44, Bears 16
Austin Veazey (@EasyVeazeyNG)
Florida State’s defense is a mess, and I don’t expect what it did offensively against Alabama to be sustainable.
However, this is still an FCS team that allowed West Florida to score 42 points. FSU should be able to take care of business so we can see guys like Malachi Marshall finally get some playing time, but that’s no guarantee.
Central Arkansas doesn’t have much of a passing attack, but their quarterback running could be an issue.
Against my better judgment, I’ll take FSU in a blowout.
2026 Season Prediction Record: 3-0
Seminoles 52, Bears 9
Tommy Mire (@TommyM3III)
FSU’s Ashton Daniels is coming off his best passing performance of the season, but he also threw three interceptions and has committed at least one turnover in 2 of 3 games.
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Central Arkansas quarterback Donovyn Omolo and running back Jalen Washington have combined for 658 rushing yards. Their ability to extend drives could help the Bears reach the end zone against a Florida State defense that has struggled in every facet.
Still, Central Arkansas likely won’t be able to keep up with the Seminoles rushing attack headlined by Ousmane Kromah and Tre Wisner.
The Bears could exploit Florida State’s secondary, which has allowed 340.7 passing yards per game, but I expect FSU to build an early lead and give its backups a chance to play, which is why I don’t think FSU puts up over 60.
We may finally see Malachi Marshall and Kevin Sperry.
2026 Season Prediction Record: 3-0
Seminoles 52, Bears 13
Dillon Riera (@13d_riera)
To the surprise of many, the Florida State Seminoles came out firing against Alabama last week, surging to a 21-6 lead deep into the second quarter. To the surprise of far fewer, however, those same Seminoles watched that advantage evaporate in about 3 minutes of game time.
Most expected the Crimson Tide to win comfortably, but that brief glimmer of hope, and the fleeting opportunity to steal a game few believed FSU could win made Saturday’s defeat all the more difficult to swallow.
Unfortunately for Florida State, it’s a trend that has become all too familiar. Self-inflicted mistakes, missed assignments, and squandered opportunities in the closing moments of games have plagued Mike Norvell’s Seminoles for much of the past three seasons.
DC Tony White’s inability to find answers, especially after surrendering 1,471 yards through three games, has only compounded those concerns.
Of course, it is difficult to imagine Florida State losing many games if the team that surged to a 15-point first-half lead against #10 Alabama can show up for a full 60 minutes. The problem is that, from one week to the next (and sometimes one quarter to the next), it remains difficult to know which version of the Seminoles will take the field, and even harder to know whether that version can survive an entire game.
None of that, however, should matter against Central Arkansas.
By every metric, Florida State owns the kind of decisive advantage in resources, roster talent, and recruiting pedigree that should be more than enough to control the Bears from the opening kick. I expect a result similar to FSU’s Week 0 win over New Mexico State, albeit with a cleaner and more complete performance on both sides of the ball.
With a daunting stretch of conference play looming, this is an opportunity for the Seminoles to clean up the mistakes, address the defensive breakdowns yet again, and prove they can sustain four quarters of disciplined football. With confidence in the program’s direction in a free fall and questions about the future growing increasingly difficult to ignore, anything less than a wide margin of victory would only deepen the doubts surrounding this team as the ‘Noles enter the heart of their schedule.
2026 Season Prediction Record: 3-0
Seminoles 42, Bears 20
CONSENSUS: Florida State (5-0)
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This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/fsu as NoleGameday Staff Score Predictions: FSU Football vs. Central Arkansas Bears.
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This story was originally published September 25, 2026 at 4:00 AM.