MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets for Monday, Sept. 14

It’s “Moonshot Monday,” with three power bats ready to start the week with a bang. Miguel Vargas gets Gavin Williams, who’s allowed six homers over his last six starts. Jackson Merrill faces Tomoyuki Sugano, who’s surrendered 21 bombs to lefties. Zach Neto draws rookie Kade Anderson with a new career high just one homer away.

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Vargas, Merrill and Neto have the splits, hot bats and matchups to send some souvenirs into the seats Monday.

All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change. DraftKings does not sponsor this content.

  • Best MLB First-Inning Predictions (NRFI/YRFI) for Monday, Sept. 14

Best Home Run Props Today

Miguel Vargas Home Run Bet (+497)

Vargas has officially crashed the 30-homer club, and Monday brings a familiar pitcher to keep the party going. Vargas is 5-for-11 with a bomb against Gavin Williams, who’s been having trouble keeping baseballs in the yard lately. Williams has surrendered 27 homers this season, including six over his last six starts, with righties doing the most damage.

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Jackson Merrill Home Run Bet (+291)

Merrill is seeing beach balls at the plate right now, crushing three homers over his last four games. Monday brings another juicy spot against Tomoyuki Sugano, who’s been hammered by left-handed power. Twenty-one of his 29 homers allowed have come against lefties, while Merrill has launched 20 of his 25 against righties. The bat is scorching and the splits line up perfectly.

Zach Neto Home Run Bet (+TBD)

Neto is one big swing away from setting a new career high, and Monday gives him a rookie lefty to chase it against. Neto has 26 bombs this season, including eight against southpaws, while Kade Anderson has already surrendered four homers through four starts. Neto has the power and Anderson is still learning life in the majors.

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2026 MLB HR Leaders

  • DH Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies (44)
  • CF Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (41)
  • 3B Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (40)
  • DH Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros (38)
  • 1B Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (38)
  • C Hunter Goodman, Colorado Rockies (38)

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This story was originally published September 14, 2026 at 4:30 AM.

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